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How to bet on Jets’ quarterback

If Aaron Rodgers is fully healthy again, that would be a risky proposition for other teams in the NFL.

In some ways, it’s a good thing Rodgers’ Achilles injury happened early last season: The Jets finished 30th in ESPN pass-blocking win percentage, but a full year of abuse behind that line would have inevitably shortened the rest of Rodgers’ career.

Instead, he’s fresh and ready to have a strong season behind an improved line.

The Jets addressed some of their biggest weaknesses this offseason with free-agent signings of veteran offensive tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, and they also drafted Penn State freshman Olu Fashanu in the first round, who should be one of the NFL’s best insurance policies as an immediate pass protector.

They also add veteran Mike Williams and rookie draft pick Malachi Corey to the wide receiver corps, but make no mistake, Garrett Wilson will get all the targets he can handle.

So how does this play out for Rodgers and the Jets? Let’s take a look at the betting markets for the quarterback’s future:

Aaron Rodgers is entering his second season with the Jets. Bill Costloan/New York Post

Best Player

Rodgers’ best odds to win the MVP are currently listed at 25/1 on FanDuel, which puts him 11th in the AFC East standings, tied with or below some of the league’s best quarterbacks, including Josh Allen (+800) and Tua Tagovailoa (25/1).

In Rodgers’ final season healthy, he threw for 3,695 yards, 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions for the Packers in 2022. That was a significant drop off from his 2021 production, in which he was named first-team All-Pro with 37 touchdowns and just four interceptions.

Whether or not Rodgers can reach that ceiling at this point in his career is a bigger question: Is it even necessary? The Jets finished third in defensive EPA/play last year and have a talented running back in Breece Hall.

Don’t expect them to participate in many shootouts where Rodgers can improve his stats.

Comeback Player of the Year

Rodgers is the favorite to win CPOY and is currently priced at +125 odds on DraftKings. That’s an implied probability of 44.4 percent, making that figure almost worth betting money on with the season still three months away.

This is especially true with Joe Burrow (+210) and Kirk Cousins ​​(+500) offering compelling cases as star quarterbacks returning from significant injuries, and, let’s be honest, Burrow and Cousins ​​have more appeal in the media sphere.

Aaron Rodgers played just four times in 2024.
Aaron Rodgers played just four times in 2024. Daniel Palhizkaran/USA TODAY Network

Passing Yards

Rodgers currently has odds of 22/1 to lead the league in this category, good for 11th on the odds board, and given how the Jets are expected to play out this season, Brock Purdy (25/1), Trevor Lawrence (25/1) and Kyler Murray (50/1) are far more appealing options in this price range.

Rodgers’ passing yards prop is set at 3,800.5 by DraftKings. He’s cleared that mark in all but one full season of his career (2022), but don’t expect the Jets to significantly increase their passing volume in 2024.

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Futures Best Bets

Jets fans are excited about the team’s potential in 2024, and they should be back once Rodgers is healthy again, but don’t expect the Jets to rely heavily on the passing game, as they boast elite defense, special teams and a good rushing presence.

New York has a shot at a Super Bowl contender this season, and Rodgers gives the team a strong chance if he’s healthy, but I’m not expecting a standout individual season from the 40-year-old passer.

I would rather bet on the Jets winning the Lombardi Trophy (24/1) than add Rodgers to my futures portfolio.