How to view Michael Conforto’s red-hot start

April 6, 2024

When a player like Mookie Betts falls into a slump, fantasy managers can only hope it doesn’t last long.

When a player like Freddie Freeman gets hot at the plate, fantasy managers wonder how long that will last.

When a player like Michael Conforto starts the season on a tear, fantasy managers wonder if it’s real or fake.

Conforto entered the weekend hitting .370 and tied for the third-most home runs (three) with 10 others. Among players with at least 20 at-bats, he ranks 5th in RBIs (9 RBIs), 7th in RBIs (8 RBIs), 4th in slugging percentage (.778), and 6th in OPS (1.192). Ta.

Conforto, the fourth-highest addition on ESPN League this week, is a career .254 hitter and has hit over .270 twice. The first time was in the 2017 All-Star campaign when he hit .279, and the other time was when he hit .279. He hit .322 in the coronavirus-shortened 2020 season. If you think Conforto will hit .370, you have to believe that Santa Claus is real (sorry kids).

Conforto has struck out in 31 percent of his at-bats and has a walk rate of just 6.1 percent, but the clearest sign of things to come is his BABIP of .467, which suggests he’s had some luck. This shows that it is definitely destined for regression. But he shouldn’t let his numbers drop so much that he’s useless.

The truth is, it’s never been a question of whether Conforto could be a reliable fantasy option. He always has been, and probably always will be (albeit not at his current pace at the plate) — as long as he’s healthy. Too many injuries are a big reason why he hasn’t been able to be a consistent option year after year.

Conforto has only played in more than 125 games in a season twice, most recently in 2019 when he played in 151 games. He appeared in 125 games in 2021 and 2023 (he didn’t play in 2022), hitting .235 with a .235 batting average. He posted a .724 OPS and averaged 14 home runs and 56 RBIs. He appears to be healthy now, and as long as he’s in the Giants’ batting lineup, there’s no reason to believe he can’t be a solid outfielder on the team.

Now let’s see if other hot starts are to be believed.

Pittsburgh’s Connor Joe (20.7 percent) entered the weekend batting .346 with one home run, seven RBIs, nine RBIs and a 1.084 OPS in his first six games. Here’s the concern: Throughout his career, the opening month has always been his best (.272, 9 HR, 26 RBI, .884 OPS). Example: In his first 16 games of 2023, he hit .377 with 8 RBIs, 13 runs scored, and an OPS of 1.138. He then hit .228 in 117 games. In 2022, he hit .322 with four home runs, six RBIs, 11 RBIs and a 1.039 OPS in his first 15 games. He then batted .223 with a .639 OPS in 96 games. It’s great to have multiple positions eligible, but this is just Joe’s recent strong start, and it’s doubtful the results will change in 2024.

Christopher Morrell (49.9 percent enrollment) had one RBI and a hit in each of his first six games, hitting .375 with two home runs and a 1.131 OPS. Although he doesn’t hit .375 (he hit .250 in the minors), he has a big bat (he had 27 home runs, 70 RBIs, and an .821 OPS in 107 games last year), so he’s often in the Cubs’ lineup. It is located in He should also appear frequently on fantasy rosters.

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Michael A. Taylor (4.9 percent enrollment) is another Pirate who is off to a strong start. He entered the weekend with a seven-game hitting streak, going 12-for-25 (.480 batting average), seven RBIs, one stolen base, and a 1.083 OPS. He had at least one hit and one RBI in five of those games. He hates to be the bearer of bad news, but he struck out 27.6 percent of the time and his .632 BABIP was insane. Huge Regression is coming. He may get plenty of playing time thanks to his defense, but the 33-year-old is a career .240 hitter and the only hitter to hit above .254 once in his career, in 2017. is. He rides a strong record and doesn’t stop. A long-term breakout is expected.

San Diego catcher Luis Campusno appeared in just 49 games last year, hitting .319 with seven home runs, 30 RBIs, 27 RBIs and an .847 OPS. In his first seven games of 2024, he went 12-for-30 (.400) with one home run, seven RBIs, five RBIs and a 1.000 OPS. His strikeout rate in his first 30 at-bats ranks in the top 1 percent of the league. His xBA is .342 and BABIP (.393) indicates things haven’t stayed this clean, but there’s a reason he’s the most added position player in the ESPN league this week (and He’s still only 55.7 percent on the roster). Roto Reiji understands the concerns about his durability, but Campusano has the potential to be one of the top hitting backstops in the game, and he’s going to be one of the top hitting backstops in the game until there’s nothing more to worry about. should be treated as such.

big hit song

Cole Regan’s SP, Royals

He has a 17 percent strikeout rate, including 16.2 percent with his cutter and 34 percent with his changeup, and has a 1.46 ERA, 11.7 strikeouts per nine and a .140 opponent average.

Jalen Duran OF, Red Sox

He had at least one stolen base in four of his first seven games and entered the weekend tied for the league lead with six stolen bases while batting .393.

Seth Lugo SP, Royals

The former Met posted a 1-0 record, a 0.71 ERA, and a .222 average against opponents, although he had just 4.97 strikeouts per nine at-bats in his first two starts.

Spencer Steer 1B/2B/3B/OF, Reds

He had at least one RBI in four of his first six games, posting a .435 batting average, a home run, eight RBIs, one stolen base, and a 1.219 OPS.

big whiff

Michael King SP/RP, Padres

The former Yankee posted a 6.14 ERA and 2.182 WHIP, going 1-0 with 10 walks and two home runs allowed in his first two games.

Lane Thomas OF, Nationals

He went 2-for-24 (.083) with no home runs or RBIs, four RBIs, and a .262 OPS in his first six games. Wouldn’t there be at least two stolen bases?

Zach Thompson P, Cardinals

Not only does he have a 6.97 ERA, he has allowed four home runs and given up 5.2 walks per nine innings, giving opponents a .268 batting average.

Jose Leclerc RP, Rangers

He allowed at least one run in his first three appearances and posted a 20.25 ERA. His opponents are batting .273 with an .802 OPS against him. Keep an eye out for David Robertson’s availability.

check the swing

Joe Musgrove allowed 10 earned runs in his first two starts, going 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA and a .351 opponent average (his xERA and xBA are even higher). Although his fastball velocity appears to be decreasing, his walk rate is increasing and his strikeout rate is decreasing. Not a great start.
Fast start: Milwaukee’s Bryce Turan batted .438 with two RBIs, two runs scored and six stolen bases (tied for league lead) through the first five games, making him the most added second baseman in the ESPN league.
Enjoy the numbers: Mookie Betts batted .485 with five home runs, 11 RBIs and a 1.686 OPS in his first nine games. He also scored 14 points, which was more than the White Sox (12 points) and Mets (13 points) scored in the first six games.

Aaron Civale has been surprisingly available in about 60 percent of ESPN league games, has struck out 31.1 percent of the batters he has faced, and is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA and a .190 batting average. His 100 percent strand rate, 2.38 xERA, and 3.37 xFIP will take a step back, but he will remain a valuable starter.
Guardians ace Shane Bieber experienced elbow pain while starting the first two games this season, and will undergo surgery at the end of the season. Are you sure he has pain in his elbow? Apparently his right arm seemed to be working fine. He pitched 12 scoreless innings, struck out 20 (15 strikeouts per nine innings), walked 2.2 percent of batters he faced, and had a WHIP of .917. Opponents had a .227 batting average and a 16.9 percent strikeout rate, including 34.8 percent on sliders. Sure, his BABIP (.417), xERA (2.62), and xFIP (0.60) showed some regression, but this was a monster start. He got even better when you realize he had an average draft position of 129.2.