How do you get the most votes? That question will influence every strategic decision that former President Donald Trump, Vice President Kamala Harris and lesser candidates make before November.
Americans know Both parties lean towards the extremesBut what would happen in the rest of the election if both parties ran campaigns that targeted centrist voters rather than catering to their base voters?
As former lawmakers who have earned a reputation as moderates standing up to their respective political parties, we believe such a movement would greatly benefit the country.
Our nonpartisan organization We recently conducted a poll of nearly 2,000 voters across the country (including over 600 swing voters, most of whom plan to vote in November) and a series of swing vote focus groups. Both showed surprising results.
Most importantly, these swing voters feel ignored by politicians. A staggering 87 percent of respondents strongly or somewhat agreed that “Congress doesn't listen to people like me.” These voters feel deeply alienated by both parties and exhausted by divisive political rhetoric.
These floating voters are not limited by partisan loyalty: Over 80% say they don’t care which party proposes an idea as long as it’s a good one (partisans who reject the other party’s proposals, take note). In fact, our focus groups showed that overall distrust of both parties surpasses policy differences as the strongest reaction to party ideas. Voters recognize that both parties now express extreme views.
What have we learned to shape campaigns focused on winning the swing vote in hotly contested House and Senate races, and in presidential battleground states?
Democratic leaders may not want to hear it, but rising prices and border security are the issues that matter most to swing voters: 90% say rising prices are continuing to get worse, and 65% support closing the southern U.S. border until migrants can be controlled.
These voters say they feel insecure, both economically and physically. By ignoring these issues or demonizing those who make them a priority, Democrats put us at risk. The next time we're faced with activists yelling “defund the police,” Democrats should know that these voters also feel crime is getting worse. They believe Democrats are less willing to punish crime than Republicans, and they trust their local police.
And while this particular finding is awkward to share as someone who understands the threats facing our democracy as a member of the House Select Committee on the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol, few swing voters are expressing such concerns. Rather, they feel that the government is no longer responsive to their needs, suggesting perhaps one way to re-invigorate faith in our democracy: by directly addressing the concerns of these Americans.
That may be a hard truth to swallow for Republican leaders, and it may be awkward for them as co-authors of the Tax Cuts and Jobs bill, but they should proceed with caution when pursuing big tax cuts. Most swing voters instinctively believe that such proposals would primarily benefit the wealthiest Americans, and 67 percent believe CEOs and other corporate executives pay less than their fair share of taxes.
Demonizing immigrants hurts swing voters because more than 60% of these voters understand that the American economy relies in part on immigrants and migrant workers. Two-thirds of swing voters support a path to citizenship for people who entered the US illegally as children. In focus groups, these voters also reject the idea that immigration leads to increased crime.
While some former Republican colleagues want to repeal the Inflation Control Act, which focuses on energy and climate policy, the poll found that nearly two-thirds of swing voters support addressing climate change through deals with other countries, as a growing number of Republican lawmakers do. Similar warning sound Regarding efforts towards abolition.
And 64% of these voters reject the idea of the United States shrinking its presence overseas and making concessions to foreign adversaries like Russia or China. Rather, they want to see stable leadership in U.S. foreign policy.
Ultimately, it's up to the political parties: Will we continue to pander to extreme views, alienating more Americans and further eroding faith in our democracy, or will one or both parties take up the banner of common sense moderation and start fighting for the middle ground?
Stephanie Murphy represented Florida's 7th District from 2017 to 2023. Carlos Curbelo represented Florida's 26th District from 2015 to 2019. They are currently Center Aisle Union.
