Vladimir Putin's administration is up to a new diplomatic trick for the second Trump administration, as the Russian government tries to lure Trump's incoming national security team into supporting Russia under the false pretext of “America First.” are preparing.
Donald Trump largely avoided Putin's schemes when he first took office, but Trump 2.0 will have to close the door on Putin's schemes.
Russian spies call Putin's common method of manipulating foreign leaders “reflexive control.”
This is a KGB term that refers to a sophisticated method of deceiving individuals or groups of powerful elites into believing that they are serving their own interests rather than those of Moscow.
As a lifelong spy, President Putin has mastered this form of deception and used it against successive American presidents.
He famously used this policy with George W. Bush to convince the president that Russia was America's partner in the war on terror. President Bush spent years offering temptations and concessions, but President Putin simply made more demands without responding.
President Bush was convinced that President Putin could be trusted and said, “I could feel his soul.'' However, President Putin eventually revealed his true intentions and invaded Georgia in the final months of President Bush's term in 2008.
The Russian dictator has stepped up his game of deception with Barack Obama, welcoming Obama's “secret letter” and his proposed “reset” of relations. Believing Europe to be a quiet region, President Obama chose to withdraw two brigades of the U.S. Army and all American heavy armor from Europe.
President Putin seized on this show of weakness, annexing Crimea and launching a war against Ukraine in 2014.
President Trump's first term was too focused on repairing the setbacks of the Obama and Bush administrations to repeat the mistakes of his predecessors.
President Trump returns heavy U.S. armor and troops to Europe, imposes new sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine, and halts Putin's energy weaponization by cutting off the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany made a great deal of effort.
So what can we expect in the coming months?
Based on recent signals from the Kremlin, Putin is likely to set at least three traps for the incoming administration.
First, fear of China. In November, President Putin declared China an ally and called for joint efforts to counter the US containment strategy. China and Russia have significantly strengthened their cooperation in recent years and are united against the United States.
President Putin is likely to take advantage of President Trump's focus on countering China to press for U.S. cooperation and concessions, and such actions could bring Russia and Beijing closer together. suggests that.
Trump must resist this ploy. Russia is already actively cooperating with China to dismantle US leadership in favor of a multipolar order through BRICS (the economic alliance of developing countries led by China and Russia).
The president-elect has recently called on BRICS countries to abandon plans to create alternative currencies to weaken the dollar, threatening to impose 100% tariffs if they proceed. This is a targeted and necessary response.
Second, the rattling of nuclear sabers. Putin's most effective tactic is to use nuclear blackmail to escalate anxiety in the West.
Most recently, it has used these fears to induce the Biden administration to exercise self-deterrence, repeatedly restricting military aid to Ukraine and restricting the use of long-range weapons.
Trump shouldn't be fooled by that. A dictator has no intention of causing a nuclear explosion.
Finally, the Kremlin has long positioned Russia as a defender of “traditional” values against the liberal West, a cynical ploy. Russia has a high abortion rate, the number of divorces is skyrocketing, and the FSB has infiltrated the Russian Orthodox Church, allegedly keeping President Putin's spies in the confessional.
Some of those in President Trump's previous orbit have fallen for Moscow's bait. Former national security adviser Michael Flynn once praised Putin's rhetoric about family and God, complaining that the West was undermining those values.
President Putin will likely seek to exploit America's cultural divide by stirring up hateful debates over family and morality.
Rather than falling into Putin's trap, Trump 2.0 should follow the principle of “peace through strength” and, in particular, make the element of economic “strength” flexible.
He should urgently harness America's economic power and eliminate the Kremlin's energy sanctions loopholes and exemptions, which the Biden-Harris administration failed to do.
President Trump will need to further establish geopolitical influence over Russia, as President Obama and his European allies did in their unsuccessful attempt to negotiate peace with President Putin after the 2014 invasion of Ukraine.
An initial buildup of American military equipment for Ukraine will show Putin that Trump means business.
By arming Hezbollah in the Middle East, strengthening North Korea with advanced air defense technology, overthrowing governments in Africa and challenging America through an “axis of resistance” with Iran, Putin will sweep the world for Trump 2.0. Made the place more dangerous than it should have been.
Trump and his allies must accept that Putin's Russia is not a friend, but a dangerous enemy who deploys deception at every turn.
Peter Dolan is a non-resident senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of DemocraciessIvana Stradner is a researcher.
