Hurricane Kiko Tracking Toward Hawaii
Hurricane Kiko is strengthening in the Eastern Pacific as it moves westward, generally heading towards Hawaii. However, as of now, it doesn’t seem likely to have a significant effect on the island.
On Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center reported that Kiko is positioned about 1,665 miles east of Hilo and is nearly a Category 3 hurricane. Factors like dry air and cooler ocean temperatures are expected to hinder its approach to Hawaii.
A meteorologist from the National Weather Service in Honolulu noted that storms typically weaken near the islands due to cold waters and wind shear, which could work in Hawaii’s favor.
The forecast suggests that Kiko could come closest to Hawaii later next week, but it’s unclear whether this will result in increased rainfall or higher waves. It’s a bit uncertain at this point, really.
Current satellite images indicate that sea surface temperatures between the hurricane and Hawaii are in the mid-70s, which is cooler than the ideal temperatures for cyclones to strengthen—usually around 79 degrees or higher is preferred.
Experts in hurricane science generally agree that warmer waters help organize and amplify tropical systems. Interestingly, Hawaiian officials are quite accustomed to monitoring tropical systems, but direct hits are infrequent, mainly due to those cooler sea temperatures.
Historical NOAA data reveals that only four major hurricanes, with winds of at least 115 mph, have passed within 50 miles of the 137 Hawaiian Islands.
Back in August 2021, remnants from Hurricane Linda did affect some areas in Hawaii after losing strength, bringing heavy rain and elevating wave activity on the north and east-facing beaches.
In 2020, Hurricane Douglas approached even closer, prompting various alerts, but thankfully, it also did not make landfall.
On average, Hawaii deals with impacts from the outer bands of tropical systems about 1-2 times a year, though this can vary based on the state of the southern El Niño cycle—known as ENSO.
NOAA’s records show that hurricane impacts on the island are less frequent during La Niña periods but tend to spike during neutral or El Niño conditions.
Like the Atlantic hurricane season, cyclone activity in the Central Pacific often peaks around August to October before tapering off in November and December.
