Icy Iowa gives Trump’s contenders a long shot at the spotlight

The opening round of the Republican presidential primary begins tonight. Iowa Republicans are holding caucuses with their favorite candidates, hoping that all will get a chance to face incumbent President Joe Biden in November.

Although the final tally remains to be seen, it can be reasonably assumed that former President Donald Trump will score his first victory in his bid to secure the Republican presidential nomination for the third consecutive year.

In fact, the final poll before Iowans make their choice showed Nikki Haley (DT) leading by 34 points (54% to 20%) and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) With a 41-point lead, Trump clearly has an overwhelming lead over other candidates. points (54 percent to 13 percent), according to Suffolk University. vote.

That said, while Trump appears well-positioned to walk away with 40 delegates from the Hawkeye state, there may be a lot to look forward to below the surface.

If Trump fails to exceed his lofty expectations, his campaign will Said They are looking to match Bob Dole's 13-point victory set in 1988. This could be an opportunity for Nikki Haley, who has gained a lot of momentum, especially ahead of the New Hampshire friendly.

In other words, despite Trump's commanding lead and likely victory, there are many insights to be gleaned from tonight's results, the most important of which is that Nick -Whether Haley or Ron DeSantis establish themselves as the undisputed replacement.

inside words Republican politician David Kochel said: “There are two races to watch: Trump versus his expectations. And Haley versus DeSantis. From Iowa to New Hampshire and beyond, we have the strongest arguments. Who can deploy it?”

Additionally, tonight's results could go a long way toward answering the question of whether the candidates in tonight's caucuses are the same candidates heading to New Hampshire.

The most interesting question that could be answered tonight is whether Iowa State will be DeSantis' unfortunate fate. little bighornOr will the state's huge investment pay off and a strong second place finish will keep it in the race a little longer?

In many ways, Iowa is likely the friendliest state for Florida's governor. November 2022 Midterm Elections Despite its seemingly limitless momentum, the campaign has floundered amid the current climate in recent months. lack of funds, Renewal of staffing And the questionable decision to try itsurpass trump”

DeSantis has made no secret that his campaign and supporting super PACs are prioritizing Iowa. Spent The Hawkeye State includes millions of dollars. to donate $100,000 to an Iowa congressman who supported him.

But DeSantis is competing against many of the same evangelical and conservative voters as Donald Trump. secure approval Unless the state's prominent evangelical leaders unite around DeSantis, he could slip to a disappointing third place.

If that happens, DeSantis would be wise to see the writing on the wall and back off. It's not going to be easy for him from here.

Moreover, Vivek Ramaswamy, who is in a distant fourth place with only 6 percent of the vote in the aforementioned Suffolk University poll, shows that voters have little appetite for another brash, direct Republican. Will he accept it and decline?

Of course, it is almost impossible to impede Mr. Ramaswamy's actions, but his campaign Stop He has used up all his ad dollars in the last month, and given that he and Mr. Trump share much of their base, there is virtually no path to victory, and he likely won't have much of a chance in a possible Trump administration. He will likely fall out due to the race for position.served as informal flattery Since we started bidding.

Finally, the most interesting question that will be answered tonight is just how real Nikki Haley's surge in the polls is and her message of a strong second place finish that she can carry into New Hampshire. The question is, will enough Iowans accept it?

For Haley to realistically win second place, she would need to expand her support base, currently concentrated among college-educated, more moderate urban voters, to include more conservative rural voters.

While certainly challenging, this is not impossible.Haley has support from influential people koch brothers Their extensive grassroots network supported By Marlis Popma, a powerful former leader of the Iowa Republican Party. But one important thing to watch tonight is whether they translate into increased local support for the former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador.

With that in mind, the absolutely important thing to watch tonight will be turnout. If the temperature on the day of the caucus is set as follows: the coldest More than 50 years later, voter turnout among seniors and rural areas is low, helping Ms. Haley and Ms. DeSantis and hurting Mr. Trump, who stands disproportionately to gain or lose the most depending on turnout. there is a possibility.

After all, even though Iowa State is the first contest, the winner doesn't necessarily get the nomination. In 2016, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) defeated Trump. 4 point differencejust to see Trump Conquer the following 3 states before finally becoming a candidate.

Similarly, despite Trump's commanding lead in the polls and near-certain victory heading into the vote, Iowa is likely to remain a Republican state, especially if someone not named Donald Trump wins the presidential election. could offer many surprises and rewards that could shape the rest of the nomination process. Great night.

Douglas E. Schon is a political consultant who served as an advisor to President Clinton and Michael Bloomberg's 2020 presidential campaign. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China are rising, and America is retreating. ”