In this turbulent year, peace has to start at home for the United States

With many parts of the world already ravaged by violent conflict, it is hard to imagine that the situation could get even worse this year. But according to one report, that's exactly what many American foreign policy experts fear will happen. annual survey This is being done by the Council on Foreign Relations, where I am a senior fellow and director of the Center for Preventive Action.

For the first time since the survey began 16 years ago, three of the 30 conflict-related risks respondents were asked to rate were judged to be extremely threatening to U.S. interests. and Very likely to occur within the next 12 months.

Most shockingly, so far, the biggest concern in 2024 has not been foreign conflicts or foreign threats, but domestic issues, particularly the possibility of domestic terrorism and other forms of political violence in the United States over the upcoming presidential election. It's about gender.

It is illustrative that so many American foreign policy experts are now concerned about the effects of terrorism and political violence within the United States. Beyond immediate threats to domestic life and liberty, they are almost certainly concerned about broader risks to U.S. interests.

First, America's ability to promote democracy abroad, which is critical to global stability and prosperity, would be dealt an immediate and potentially permanent blow. Of course, if the United States cannot practice what it advocates, it will be difficult to advocate peaceful elections and orderly transitions of power in other countries. Authoritarian rivals will leave no stone unturned in highlighting the contradictions, if not the hypocrisies, of US foreign policy.

What is even more concerning is that adversaries of the United States, whether state or non-state actors, are exploiting internal divisions in the United States (particularly through provocative disinformation on social media) to further infiltrate the country. This is a risk that not only invites discord but also pursues local and regional interests. The purpose is to harm the interests of the United States.

As the results of the CFR study make clear, now is not the time for the United States to be distracted by domestic political turmoil.

In addition to domestic terrorism and political violence, respondents were particularly concerned about two other pressing issues. The potential escalation of the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas into a broader regional conflict and the surge in migrants crossing the southern border, driven in part by criminal violence. , economic hardship and political corruption in Mexico and Central America.

And while these concerns may not be as troubling for the United States, other countries are not far behind in the overall rankings.

The ongoing war in Ukraine has already claimed casualties. hundreds of thousands of lives, which can escalate in some very dangerous ways.Similarly, tensions between Taiwan and China, which have been steadily increasing in recent years, especially Upcoming Taiwan presidential election.Possible military conflict between Israel and Iran Support for various armed groups With continued development in the region interested in acquiring nuclear weaponsand serious concerns remain.

Meanwhile, North Korea shows no signs of becoming more belligerent toward the United States and now has weapons. nuclear weapons It would threaten U.S. allies in the region and even U.S. territory.

It should be emphasized that these conflict-related risks are indeed top of mind for U.S. policymakers. Experts looked at 30 possible emergencies that could occur in 2024, but only two were considered unlikely.

Clearly, the United States should seek to avoid the worst-case scenario through timely preventive measures, preferably with the support of allies and partners. Although this task may seem difficult given current trends, it is not foreseen that the world will grow even more chaotically.

The United States has demonstrated time and time again its will and ability to maintain peace and restore order around the world. But this will become nearly impossible if America succumbs to further political polarization and, worse, deadly violence in 2024. In this sense, conflict prevention must now begin at home.

Paul B. Starrs is the General John Vessey Senior Fellow in Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of Preventive Engagement: How America Avoids War, Comes Stronger, and Keeps the Peace.please follow him@PaulBStares.