The Signs Were Everywhere

As I arrived at Austin–Bergstrom International Airport last week, I was immediately struck by signs proclaiming it to be “The biggest weekend ever.” The highlight was the Formula 1 United States Grand Prix, which I had come to cover. But there were also mentions of the San Antonio Spurs facing off against the Houston Rockets and the Texas Longhorns hosting the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday night.

It’s quite unusual for a Longhorns game to play second fiddle in Austin, or really anywhere in Texas, but this was the case that weekend. The Longhorns had just suffered two losses—first against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry and then again to Florida—leaving the team in a tough spot.

As a result, attention turned towards quarterback Arch Manning, who was under significant pressure.

Eventually, Texas managed to pull off a victory against the Rebels in overtime. However, Manning’s performance during that game reflected where he currently stands as a quarterback, and it raised questions about his future.

Riding the Arch Manning Rollercoaster

After a lengthy Saturday at the Circuit of the Americas, I settled into my hotel room and tuned in just in time to catch the action between Texas and Ole Miss.

Right away, I witnessed a pivotal moment:

Now, it’s hard to blame Manning entirely for this play. You could argue he needs to be quicker and more aware of the pressure, but sometimes, you just get caught off guard. His left tackle was beaten, and he got hit right as he was about to make a checkdown pass.

But that play opened the door for Ole Miss to come back after initially falling behind in the first half. And tied in the fourth quarter, this happened:

Here, you could definitely hold the quarterback accountable.

With the score at 24-24, Manning threw a deep pass under pressure, directly into tight coverage with a defender looming. Unsurprisingly, it resulted in an interception, giving the Rebels another chance to seize the lead.

These missteps are critical; they hand the opponent chances they shouldn’t have. This moment echoed his earlier interception against Oklahoma, late in the game, that gave the Sooners a shot at victory:

These instances are what you can pinpoint on a quarterback’s shoulders—decisions that can either lead to opportunities for victory or hinder a team’s chance of winning. While Manning and the Longhorns managed to escape against Ole Miss, they weren’t so fortunate against Oklahoma.

Adding to the frustration is that Manning has shown flashes of brilliance in both games. Some plays genuinely reflect the talent expected from a top NFL draft prospect, like the touchdown he threw against the Rebels:

Manning scanned the field, held firm against the pressure, and delivered a perfect deep ball to Ryan Wingo that extended the Longhorns’ lead.

Or consider this touchdown against the Sooners:

In this instance, Manning maneuvered to his left while under pressure and made a tough throw downfield for a touchdown.

In those moments, you see the quarterback that might be seen as a candidate for the top draft pick.

Yet, the quarterback who made those two earlier mistakes? That version might not even make it to the Combine.

Let’s also take into account this interception against Tennessee, where Manning forced a deep throw into double coverage while the Longhorns aimed for a high-low strategy:

Such errors aren’t what you’d expect from a college quarterback in his sophomore year, especially one tagged as a potential No. 1 pick.

This rollercoaster of a season has certainly impacted his draft stock. Sure, mock drafts aren’t the most reliable, but it’s telling to observe how his prospects have shifted lately, as noted by sources.

After a summer spent projected to be the top pick, Manning’s stock has begun to slip. While still likely to be a first-round selection, he’s now trailing behind rising star Drew Mestemaker. If this pattern of inconsistency continues, who knows where his stock might land?

Last fall, we witnessed Manning’s stock take a hit after some initial struggles, but he rebounded to show strong form as the season progressed. It’s possible that columns like this one will be forgotten by December.

But, what if that doesn’t happen this time?

What would that mean for him and for us?

A compelling conversation about Manning has emerged recently.

There’s chatter about the possibility of him finishing his college career elsewhere.

The notion of Manning staying for an extra year seemed outlandish a few months ago, yet with his performance this season, many evaluators are suggesting he might be better off seeking out a different system and environment next year.

One such voice is Jordan Palmer, who contended on ESPN that the current play-calling at Texas is limiting what Manning can do and, in turn, stunting his growth:

“Well Arch has got to be allowed to play quarterback, and he’s really not right now. Hembo had a great stat for me. 48% of his throws are either at or behind the line of scrimmage or 20+ yards downfield. That’s by far one of the highest in the entire country. So it’s either a quick, easy layup or a bomb downfield that’s low percentage that puts him in trouble. We’ve seen some interceptions there.

“He’s not allowed to really — maybe he’s not allowed or he can’t, either way — he doesn’t change things pre-snap. This offense doesn’t allow him to slide protections, read Mike. You don’t see him doing some of that. He also doesn’t get full-field progressions where they’re attacking the short to intermediate area of the field.”

Palmer suggested several schools for Manning, including Ole Miss, where his family legacy lies, as well as LSU, which is under Lane Kiffin’s leadership. Perhaps those programs could help foster Manning’s growth.

Yet, it’s Steve Sarkisian, the current Texas head coach, who holds the responsibility for his development. Sarkisian is often praised for his play design skills, but the question of how well he develops quarterbacks has started to come into focus.

Let’s not overlook that Manning bided his time behind another highly-regarded recruit, Quinn Ewers. Ewers at one point was thought to be a future NFL star but fell to the seventh round of the 2025 NFL draft.

So while Sarkisian deserves credit for creating solid offensive strategies, the development side of things seems to be faltering.

Concerns about Manning’s trajectory are now being echoed by numerous voices in the sport.

Notably, Paul Finebaum has shared his perspective:

“What a disaster. The absolute arrogance of [Steve] Sarkisian to crack back at people like me and others with the idiotic take of the year that if his [Manning’s] name was Joe Smith, you would be praising him,” Finebaum said. “I’m beginning to wonder if Arch Manning should even start. I know he will, and he’s capable of leading them to a win, but I blame Sarkisian for every aspect of this.

“And until last week I called (Sarkisian) an elite play caller. He’s not. I have no earthly idea what Steve Sarkisian is doing. I think we all agree he shouldn’t be calling the plays. There’s too many other things going on on that sideline that are distracting, and he has made an absolute mess out of the most talented team in the country.

“I know he will, and he’s capable of leading them to a win, but I blame Sarkisian for every aspect of this. And I’m not in that locker room, and I’m not on that practice field. All I can do is that I watch the games like you do, and the rest of America. And this is on you, Sarkisian. It’s terrible. It’s embarrassing what you’ve done to Arch Manning. And I wonder if he’s going to regret the day that he went to play for Steve Sarkisian.”

While Finebaum has softened his stance after Texas’ win, another former coach, Brian Kelly, raised similar concerns:

“Look, he’s your quarterback,” Kelly said. “They’re not going back. I mean, they’re not going to bench him unless there’s just a total meltdown. Look, Josh Heupel is doing it at Tennessee, playing great defense, running the football, and … he’s played two (young) quarterbacks, and so you can’t tell me that you can’t fit this offense to Arch Manning.”

A strong finish could potentially erase some of these critiques. Yet, there are two quarterbacks under Sarkisian facing development issues, and the pressure is certainly building.

Flashes of brilliance still appear with Manning; moments where he resembles a potential top draft pick.

But the inconsistency remains a significant issue, and until NFL scouts see that consistency, these questions won’t fade.

Who knows? Maybe Manning explores those answers at a different institution next year.