Nebraska's Senate race could be one of the most surprising this fall, but an independent candidate could upset the race.
Dan Osborne is running as an independent to oust Republican Sen. Deb Fischer in the Republican-dominated state. Democrats have dropped out of the race, and Republicans have backed Osborne. Democrats dressed as independents,he Distanced himself from both parties.
Polling is scarce, and observers have urged caution in assuming this year's election will buck historical trends in a state that has sent Republican candidates to both Senate seats since 2012.
but, A recent poll by SurveyUSA/Split Ticket The fact that Ms Fischer was showing signs of competing with Mr Osborne caused consternation among political commentators and raised questions about how tough the race would be.
“At some point, those of us who watch Nebraska politics are going to have to take seriously that this is actually a close race,” said Kevin Smith, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “I'm leaning toward the view that we may be in the midst of a fight for a Senate seat, which is a bit of a shock given that Republicans have dominated statewide elections for years.”
Osborne, a blue-collar union worker and political newcomer, sought the Democratic endorsement; Announced this spring He made it clear that he would not accept support from any political party. United Auto Workers and other labor unions.
Nebraska Democratic Party This movement He “betrayed” their trust and announced plans to run an anonymous candidate, Such efforts have yet to materialize.
Vince Powers, a Lincoln lawyer and former chairman of the state Democratic Party, argued that such tensions would not prevent most Nebraska Democrats from voting for Osborne.
“There are two names on the ballot. One is a senator who is not popular with Democrats. So Mr. Osborne doesn't need to be a dynamic, charismatic person. He's not a Deb Fischer. And that's good enough for 100 percent of Democrats. And then, of course, there's the middle,” Powers said.
The Osbornes The campaign said it is At least 12,000 signatures In an effort to get his nonpartisan campaign on the ballot in August, he touted the numbers as a sign of enthusiasm for an alternative. He says he's running “I will break the vicious cycle of the two-party system that we're all trapped in,” he said, adding that he has no plans to meet with either party if elected.
Political observers are skeptical that Fischer, who has kept a low profile in the Senate, could have done anything to hand an independent candidate a defeat.
she $6 million Since 2019, Osborne has received just $1.2 billion in federal elections, according to Federal Election Commission filings. $1.6 million Since the start of the election campaign.
nevertheless, SurveyUSA/Split Ticket Poll Fischer has 39 percent of the vote, just one point ahead of his opponent, Osborne, and 23 percent are undecided.
The pollster's analysis suggests that Fischer has a “very strong chance of winning,” given the number of people who are still undecided and the proportion of voters who say they don't know Osborne. “However, that has not happened yet, and at this point our polling shows results very similar to the internal documents released by Osborne – an unexpectedly very tight race,” the analysis said.
John Rogers, a pollster for Fischer's campaign, cast doubt on the poll in a statement to The Hill, which is based on the U.S. Census and which Rogers argued gives younger voters an over-representation.
“The survey shows that seniors will make up the smallest percentage of the electorate and the largest percentage will be 18-34 year olds. This has never happened in the history of Nebraska or possibly any other state,” Rogers said.
But a spokesman for Osborne's campaign insisted the figures reflected “growing support” for the independent candidate. Some internal investigationsSurveys released by different pollsters have shown the results of the election within the margin of error.
“This is a unique campaign that brings together people from all backgrounds and walks of life – Republicans, Democrats, Independents and everyone in between. People are tired of partisan fighting in Washington and want serious leadership who can make government work for them,” the spokesperson said in a statement.
Sponsored by Osborne YouGov Survey A poll released last month put Fischer on 43 percent and Osborne on 41 percent, while a July poll showed Red Wave Strategy Group/Impact Research Both are 42 percent each.
“Right now, all four polls are saying roughly the same thing: Sen. Fischer and Dan Osborne are neck and neck among committed voters,” said Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University and founder of the Princeton Elections Consortium. “That means it could go either way between now and November 5th.”
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report Republicans confident of victoryWang said the electoral handicap could be a “lagging indicator” that the campaign might take a new direction.
“If circumstances change, these assessments could change,” Wang said of the Nebraska election. “There's a lot of undecided voters, so there's a lot of room to move in either direction.”
a Torchlight Strategies Poll Meanwhile, in elections backed by Fischer's campaign, the incumbent is leading by a whopping 26 points.
Omaha-based Republican strategist Ryan Horn argued that polls suggesting a tight race are “out of touch” with the reality in Omaha.
“This is Osborne, the guy with no house parties, no big bucks and no advertising,” Horne said, adding that the independent hadn't presented a compelling enough case for why voters should turn their backs on Fisher. “This is all a lot of ado.”
Fischer was elected to the Senate in 2012, defeating Democrat Bob Kerrey. About 16 pointsSix years later, she defeated Democrat Jane Raybould. 19 Points.
Former President Trump won the state by about 25 points in 2016 and defeated President Biden by about 20 points in 2020. Support Trumpis expected to get a boost from his position at the top of the shortlist, while others say Osborne could get some help from some of the bills on the ballot, including an initiative aimed at expanding abortion rights.
Paul Landau, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha and former executive director of the state's Democratic Party, called Osborne's candidacy “commendable” but ignored the polling results, arguing “this is Nebraska.”
Independents across the country are struggling in the Senate elections. Only 4 seatsAl Gross tried to unseat Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) in 2020, and Evan McMullin faced off against Republican incumbent Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) in the midterm elections. Both candidates were backed by Democrats and garnered notable support on Election Day, but lost by double digits to the incumbent.
“Obviously, if you asked me this question 12 months ago, if I was a betting man I would have said, 'No, if you just look at the party registration numbers, Fisher is going to win by 20 to 30 points,'” Smith said.
Voters Registration StatisticsAs of early August, the state's Republican voters were found to be nearly twice as numerous as its Democrats, while Democrats and independents combined were nearly equal to the Republican numbers.
“I think the word out there is, 'Wow, this is going to be a competitive race,'” Smith said.
