It’s tough to find fault with No. 1 Indiana right now. The Hoosiers have made quite a stellar run to the College Football Playoff semifinals. With an unbeaten record of 14-0, a Heisman-winning quarterback, impressive offensive efficiency, and a tough defense, they’re looking strong.
When was the last time Alabama was truly dominated? The Hoosiers showed just that with a 38-3 victory, giving the Crimson Tide only 23 rushing yards and 11 first downs. While Fernando Mendoza couldn’t be more than a spectator in this one, he left with a memorable three-touchdown performance.
No. 5 Oregon State had a relatively quiet New Year’s Day, shutting out Texas Tech 23-0. The Red Raiders struggled against the Ducks, plagued by penalties and turnovers. Oregon focused less on style points and more on controlling field position and defensive integrity.
The question arises about how much the Ducks have improved since losing 30-20 to Indiana back on October 11. In that game, the Hoosiers pressured Oregon’s QB, Dante Moore, at a 50 percent rate, sacking him six times and taking advantage of critical turnovers late in the game. Indiana was efficient in the red zone, but it’s worth noting that Oregon did manage to run the ball well against a strong defense.
Oregon State’s running game showed promise, often surpassing 100 rushing yards multiple times in the closing weeks of the season. It seems they’ve relied on their talented roster, allowing them to stay dominant at the line of scrimmage.
Indiana’s defense is formidable—they haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 11 and are ranked highly in limiting points scored against them in the red zone. However, they do have weaknesses. Their pass defense, allowing 6.2 yards per attempt and 63 percent completion, lingers at the bottom among FBS teams.
Interestingly, the mistakes from Alabama’s protection overshadow a dip in Indiana’s pass rush effectiveness during the Rose Bowl. In contrast, Oregon State’s offensive line poses a different challenge. If Moore has time, he’s demonstrated his ability to exploit blitzes effectively. Should Indiana’s pressure drop even slightly, Oregon’s potent passing attack could capitalize.
The Hoosiers will push Oregon State’s discipline early, utilizing their standout running back duo, Roman Hemby and Kaylon Black. Yet, Oregon State’s defense specializes in creating passing situations, and considering they’ve thwarted Mendoza’s big plays before, there’s potential for some uncertainty here.
I might be fooling myself, especially since Indiana has surprised me in the past, but looking at their previous matchup, performance metrics, and the enticing quarterback showdown between Moore and Mendoza—both projected top NFL draft picks—it’s conceivable that this Ducks team could overcome a 3.5 point deficit.
