Consumer prices rose slightly during President Trump's first month of office, according to data released Wednesday by the Labor Department.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% from January to February, and increased by 2.8% per year.
Consensus estimates that economists expect CPI to rise by 0.3% that month and annual inflation will increase by 2.9%.
This number was the fourth consecutive month of annual inflation rates at CPI, rising steadily from 2.4% in September to 3% in January.
The rise has led President Trump to declare in February that inflation has returned. He quickly distanced himself from the rising trend in prices and said, “has nothing to do with that.”
Consumer inflation measured by the Personal Consumption Expense Price Index (the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge) was eased in January after fall, up 2.5% per year from 2.6% in December.
New CPI reports occur during weeks of rising economic pressures.
President Trump's Stop-and-Go tariff announcements over the past few weeks have added uncertainty to the economic situation.
Earlier this month, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods, exempts automakers, and then suspended for goods covered by the North American trade agreement.
The president imported up to 50% of the tariffs on Canadian metal imports after Canada imposed an additional electricity charge on U.S. exports to New York, Minnesota and Michigan on Monday.
The White House refused to rule out the recession this week, fostering even greater market anxiety.
“We are in a period of economic transition,” White House spokesman Caroline Leavitt said Tuesday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average for big US companies has taken away about 6.5% of its value over the past month. The S&P 500 Index has fallen by more than 7.5% over the past month, with US company Russell 2000 Index exceeding 10%, and the high-tech NASDAQ has fallen by more than 11%.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve GDP forecast also registered an economic contraction in the first quarter. It currently shows a negative 2.4% growth.
Consumer sentiment, measured at the University of Michigan, fell sharply in February, down 10% from February. It also showed that annual inflation expectations, the best reading since November 2023, will increase from 3.3% to 4.3%.
Long-term inflation expectations in the survey increased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.5 percent, marking the largest jump of the month since May 2021.
Annoying emotions among businesses reflects consumer sentiment.
The uncertainty measured by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reached the second-highest reading ever in February, recorded an index score of 104, the group reported Tuesday.
12% of businesses report that they are reporting a good time to expand operations, down 5 percentage points since January, representing the largest monthly decline in five years.
“There's a lot of uncertainty and rising on Main Street and many reasons,” NFIB economist Bill Dunkilberg said in a statement. “Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months have fallen, and the percentages that view the current period as a good time has fallen.”
