How could you not be intrigued by Oklahoma State's offensive line?
With Doak Award-winning running back Ollie Gordon leading the offense behind an experienced offensive line (seven seniors with over 200 career starts), the Pockets will be able to move the ball consistently on the ground while setting up valuable play-action passing for the ever-improving QB Alan Bowman (over 1,200 yards of play-action passing in 2023).
OSU's defense has its doubts, but it could improve with nine starters returning from last year's unit.
Overall, the Pockets return 19 starters from last year's Big 12 Championship runner-up team, ranking first in the nation in experience.
In contrast, Arkansas ranks 88th in experience.
I'm concerned about the offensive line (62 career starts) and the linebacker corps (all four starters from last season are out).
There are major depth concerns on defense, and on the offensive side, it's unclear how quarterback Taylen Green, a transfer from Boise State, will perform in the SEC after playing three years in the MWC.
I always like to bet on experienced teams versus inexperienced teams in September.
The former is generally more match-ready in non-conference games.
The Bowman-Gordon duo should overwhelm a questionable Razorbacks defense that ranked 74th in EPA per rush last season.
Your selection: Oklahoma State University -10.
Iowa State (+2.5) vs. University of Iowa
I have high hopes for Iowa State, and with 19 starters returning from last year's roster and a huge improvement after a slow start, I think the Cyclones will explode this year.
I love QB Rocco Becht, the 2023 Big 12 Freshman of the Year.
Two of last year's top three receivers return, along with all five starters on the offensive line.
The Cyclones have a strong and experienced secondary.
The Hokies have always had a talented defense, but after a 40-0 win over FCS Illinois State, it's hard to believe that coach Tim Lester has suddenly rebuilt a hapless offensive line.
I'm not one to overreact to the FBS vs. FCS results in Week 1, and I'm not ready to bet on Cade McNamara for QB1 just yet.
At the very least, this should be a sloppy, low-scoring game decided by a single possession, and I'll be taking the points in a battle for premium points.
Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell is 31-16 against the spread as an underdog of three or more points in his career.
Your selection: Iowa State +2.5.
Oregon (-19.5) beats Boise State
The Ducks had a terrible game last week against FCS Idaho (24-14 win), but still outplayed the Vandals in the box score, having three times as many first downs (31-10) and more than twice as many total yards (487-217).
Oregon had some bad luck with some poorly timed penalties that skewed the final result.
Again, I won’t overreact to the FBS vs. FCS results in Week 1, which is why I continue to rate the Ducks highly as national title contenders.
Boise State is one of the favorites to represent the Group of Five in the College Football Playoff, but following their performance against Georgia Southern, I've significantly downgraded their rating.
Do you bet on college football?
I was concerned about the defense, but it was much worse than I expected.
Georgia Southern gave up 45 points on 99 total plays, generating 0.30 EPA per rush (90th percentile) and 10 explosive plays (12th, 85th percentile).
What do you think Dan Lanning, Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks will do? They might drop 60 points.
Superstar running back Ashton Jeanty dominated Georgia Southern's weak and undersized defensive line (a school-record 269 yards and six touchdowns), but he would be ineffective against tougher competition.
Oregon has talent and experience on defense, returning nine starters from last year's unit.
Lanning will likely focus on Junty and try to force inexperienced quarterback Maddox Madsen into unfavorable passing situations.
last week: 1-2. Clemson (L), Syracuse (L), Hawaii (W)
2024 season: 1-2.
