Caitlin Clark took March by storm.
More and more people are tuning in to watch the senior guard score 32 points and dish out nine assists on a nightly basis. She held off her competition in the NCAA Tournament and once again found herself in the Final Four.
She and the Hawkeyes are 2.5-point favorites to advance past UConn and advance to the national championship, and I’m tied for points with Clark and company.
However, I also believe that everyone is willing to bet high on Clark’s player prop, given that sportsbooks are making her prop high because no one is willing to bet on her under. Masu.
I think the Hawkeyes will win, but it would be wise to consider Clark’s departure in some of these markets.
All odds are available from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Caitlin Clark – Over/Under 33.5 points
Yes, Clark is averaging 32 points per game this season.
She also scored more than 33 points in 14 of 37 games, but only 37% of the time.
She topped 33 points in nine of 18 Big Ten conference games, a more respectable 50 percent.
In four NCAA Tournament games, Clark only scored more than 33 points once, dropping 41 points against LSU on a tournament-high 29 shots after playing 40 minutes.
I think it’s more likely that Clark won’t reach the 33.5 point milestone.
Especially considering UConn’s defensive profile.
The Huskies are the fourth-best defensive team in the nation, according to ShotQualityBets metrics.
Their ERA of 82.3 ranks in the 98th percentile of DI women’s teams. They rank in the top 50 nationally in open 3 rate, top 10 in rim-and-3 rate and top 25 in free throw rate.
Learn more – Clark loves to push the pace and score in transition. On the other hand, she primarily scores on her own around off-ball screens and in the half court.
However, UW is a solid transition denial defense (10 transition points allowed per game, 66th nationally) and is also good against secondary screening actions (off-ball screen points allowed per game). 3.1, 24th in the nation).
Clark decimated LSU, but the Tigers ranked 28th in ShotQualityBets’ defensive metrics and were close to the national average in open 3 allowed rate, meaning Clark would hit 20 triples and make nine. was easy.
Additionally, UConn is about seven possessions slower per game (69) than LSU (76), so there may be fewer opportunities for Clark to accumulate monster counting stats.
Although it was a different team and player, Clark played for UW twice during his career, but failed to reach 25 points in either game.
Clark scored 21 points on 7-of-21 shooting (33%) in a game against UW in the NCAA Tournament as a freshman, and scored 25 points on 9-of-24 shooting (38%) in last year’s regular season game. Recorded. The Hawkeyes lost both games.
Clark’s point prop is very strong and is going to fade her in the final four against elite defenses that can contain most of her action.
Pick: Caitlin Clark Under 33.5 points (-105)
Caitlin Clark – 5.5 over/under 3 pointers made
Similar to her point prop, I think this line is a little inflated.
Clark rarely hits six 3s in a game. She has hit that mark in 16 of 37 games (43%) this year and only one of four in the tournament.
I really like the under 33.5 points, but I can’t say the same about her making threes at the under 5.5.
The problem is that UConn’s defensive structure allows a lot of 3s. Although mostly guarded and off the dribble, the Huskies still allow him more than 22 threes (22nd percentile) and more than 35 jumpers (100th percentile) per game.
We don’t know how many will fall, but Clark should be able to make a lot of deep 3-point jumpers off the dribble.
She could reach six 3s just by sheer volume, so we’ll leave that number out.
Pick: Pass
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Caitlin Clark – 10.5+/less assists
Clark had double-digit assists, far more than the 35 points he scored in this year’s game.
In Big Ten conference play, Clark had 10 or more assists in 13 of 18 games.
She already has 40 assists this NCAA Tournament, including a just three-assist performance against West Virginia.
And if Clark can’t score efficiently here, he may have to rely on creation for his teammates.
UW can dish out about 12 assists per game, but the Huskies have an assist rate of 56%, which is below the national average.
Therefore, I expect Clark not to score as much and instead give assists to his teammates.
Pick: 10.5 assists or more (+100)
Here’s everything you need to know about Caitlin Clark’s March Madness run
Printable NCAA Women’s Slots: Complete the 2024 March Madness Field
Caitlin Clark – over/under 7.5 rebounds
This number is about right. Clark averages about 7 rebounds per game and typically finishes games with 6-8 boards.
UConn is a good rebounding team, but they’re not a great team, so they don’t have an edge in this market.
Pick: Pass
