The situation in Iran seems to be increasingly inward-looking following a 12-day conflict with Israel.
Kadra Arabi, who directs research on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, suggests the country is leaning towards a “North Korean-style model of isolation and control.”
“We’re observing a significant domestic isolation that is affecting the lives of Iranians,” Arabi noted in a conversation.
“The regime has always exercised totalitarian control, but the current level of oppression is unprecedented. It’s an entirely different scenario from what we’ve seen previously.”
Sources within Iran confirmed to observers that “the oppression is becoming terrifying.”
Aarabi, who has a consistent line of communication in Iran, painted a picture of a populace trapped by its own government.
In Tehran, he described incidents where people were randomly stopped, their phones seized and searched.
“If you’re caught laughing at content or regimes that seem pro-Israel, you could vanish,” he stated.
“Many people now leave their phones at home or delete sensitive content before stepping outside.”
The new atmosphere of fear, he explained, mirrors tactics seen in North Korea.
During the recent warfare, Iranian leaders enforced widespread internet blackouts to isolate citizens, blocked critical evacuation warnings, and disseminated propaganda that painted Israel as a faceless enemy.
“It had a twisted purpose,” Arabi remarked. “They deliberately severed communication to induce fear and manipulate public views. For four days, no messages got through—no single alert reached the intended audience.”
According to him, the regime’s dual objectives were clear.
“Initially, many Iranians were supportive of the strikes,” Aarabi pointed out.
“People knew Israel was targeting the IRGC, the very force that oppresses and brutalizes them. But as the internet was cut off and anxiety grew, questions began to circulate.”
Dr. Afshon Ostbar, a noted expert on Iran and author of “Imam’s Vanguard: Religion, Politics, and Iran’s Revolutionary Security Guard,” stated that domestic oppression is the regime’s most dependable survival tactic.
“It’s easier to suppress citizens at home. They certainly have the means to do so. So it’s not far-fetched to think Iran may become even more isolated and dictatorial—akin to North Korea—as that’s seen as essential for maintaining power,” he explained.
Within the inner workings of the regime, the fallout from the conflict is also significant.
Aarabi mentioned that the IRGC is currently grappling with a crisis of trust and an impending purge.
“These operations wouldn’t have happened without infiltration at the highest levels,” he remarked.
“There’s immense pressure to clean house at present.”
The next generation of IRGC officers, appointed since 2000, are perceived as younger and more radicalized.
Interestingly, over half of their training now focuses on ideological indoctrination.
Aarabi pointed out that this new faction began to turn on senior commanders, accusing them of being overly lenient regarding Israel or liaising with Mossad.
“Ironically, Khamenei cultivated these extreme ideologies to consolidate power, and now he finds himself more radical than they are,” Arabi said.
“He’s struggling to keep them in check.”
Such purges might make the IRGC more unpredictable, both within Iran and beyond, with less experienced leaders who take bigger risks.
Due to the regime’s shifting military doctrine, terrorism could become the main strategy for influence.
“The three pillars of the regime (militias, ballistic missiles, and their nuclear agenda) have all been significantly weakened,” Aarabi stated.
“What’s left is asymmetric warfare—terrorism aimed at soft targets with plausible deniability.”
Despite the regime’s harsh measures, Arabi believes this reflects a position of weakness rather than strength.
“If the Islamic Republic felt secure, they wouldn’t need to crush people so violently,” he observed.
“This is a reaction born of fear. However, the streets will likely remain quiet until the regime’s oppressive apparatus is dismantled—a change in government seems improbable.”
