Iraq is a developing democracy, but its location between Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Syria means it is constantly under pressure from outside its borders.
The list of challenges we will face in 2024 ranges from those currently underway. security threatsincluding attacks on U.S. military bases by armed groups, political change and a discussion of the presence of U.S. troops and, perhaps most of all, the instability caused by the war in Gaza and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.
To address these challenges, Prime Minister Mohammad Shia Al-Sudani: visited Washington Sign an economic agreement and advocate for a stronger partnership between Iraq and the United States that goes beyond security and includes energy, education, and investment. Sudani avoided getting drawn into regional conflicts and instead focused on domestic infrastructure and economic development.
Wider regional conflicts, particularly tensions between Israel and Iran, and increasing regional instability have made it difficult to address conflict-related challenges. evacuees Some are returnees from Syrian refugee camps. Baghdad is national censusthe first such event in 40 years, could affect the distribution of power in the country's sectarian system and increase tensions in the country.
Iraq will not get a timeout in 2025.
Despite the defeat, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria In 2019, remnants of the group and other militias continue to pose a threat and could rise again if political and economic grievances remain unresolved. In relation to the threat of terrorist groups, border security Smuggling activities also remain a major problem.
of planned termination The US-led coalition's mission will end by September 2025, and a new security dynamic will be introduced, with a transition to bilateral security agreements (although a small number of US troops will remain). This change could either stabilize Iraq's security environment or further complicate it.
On the other hand, Iraq's economy depends on oil revenueaccounts for 95% of Iraq's federal budget, leaving the country exposed to market fluctuations. Iraq sells about 35 percent of exports This makes it vulnerable to the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the anti-China policies of the United States.
end of dollar auction platform Monitoring foreign currency transactions and ensuring compliance with international standards could transform the financial landscape, potentially leading to increased black market activity and currency management challenges.
Although there are some economic growthnon-oil sectors are struggling, and inflation is expected to rise slightly to 3.5% due to fiscal pressures and domestic economic challenges. In an effort to diversify the economy and reduce pressure on the federal budget, Baghdad aims to limit the public sector to 1-2% of the private sector over the next 10 years.
reconstruction costs The war against ISIS will cost an estimated $88 billion, on top of ongoing infrastructure development. development road A project to connect West Asia and Europe via Turkey.
Iraq could also face tensions with the incoming Trump administration, which is openly pro-Israel and could consider Iraq to be part of Iran's sphere of influence. President Trump could enact punitive measures that could destabilize Iraq, increase tensions, and curb economic activity.
Political reform, reducing Iranian influence, and increasing state authority over weapons are seen by the United States (and many Iraqis) as essential for Iraq to assert its independence.
The country is preparing for parliamentary elections The outcome could reset the political landscape in 2025. Electoral reforms are also called for to ensure better representation and reduce the marginalization of smaller parties, a concern in the Kurdish region, which is dominated by two family-based parties.
The results of the 2024 census could lead to further tensions between Baghdad and Kurdish leaders who fear a loss of influence in Iraq. sect system (This was imposed by the US), constitutional debate Issues between Baghdad and Erbil remain unresolved.
Moreover, Iraq very vulnerable To climate change. Addressing water scarcity, drought and rising temperatures, which affect agriculture and living conditions in urban areas, will strain government capacity and resources. Iraqi government does not prioritize improvement efforts water managementrebuilding water infrastructure and modernizing the agricultural sector, while instead blaming Iran and Turkey for dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers for climate change.
of flow of water The volume of water in these rivers has declined by 30 percent since the 1980s, and could decline by up to 50 percent by 2030. This degradation of natural resources threatens food security and can lead to social problems as rural populations may be forced into urban centers in search of work. If you have anxiety unemployment rate That's higher than the current 15.5 percent (but probably higher for young people).
The US still has influence in Iraq. exemption from sanctions Iraq's purchase of electricity from Iran, and more recently prohibited All foreign transactions are conducted in Chinese Yuan. Washington controls the spending of Iraq's dollar-denominated oil revenues from accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
American interventionists ignore 10 years of impact sanctions“the worst humanitarian catastrophe in history imposed in the name of global governance,” and the violence and disorder unleashed by the invasion of Iraq. American leaders may be reluctant to maintain normal relations with Iraq due to the war they chose 4,500 US military deaths and cost $2.1 trillion This is nearly 40 times the pre-war estimate, and the US may feel it has earned the right to intervene in Iraq if necessary.
The word for 2025 is “sovereignty.”
Despite many challenges, including reducing oil dependence, ensuring political stability amid sectarian divisions, and managing the environmental crisis, the Sudanese government must focus on protecting the nation. An aggressive Trump administration may consider Iraq to be part of Iran's sphere of influence, and Iran will seek to reduce its losses in Syria and Lebanon by strengthening its hand in Iraq.
However, Baghdad knows this and Tehran is an “eternal neighbor” and must seek a relationship based on mutual respect and interests.
James Durso He is a regular commentator on foreign policy and national security issues. He served in the U.S. Navy for 20 years and also served in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.
