Is a Biden comeback quietly underway?

Unless you’re deeply involved in politics, you’ve probably missed some big developments over the past three weeks. Since Joe Biden’s State of the Union address, there has been a notable reversal in his presidential fortunes.

In fact, polls have shown Biden in the lead since he addressed the nation in early March, and according to RealClearPolitics, former President Donald Trump is currently leading Biden. It leads by only 1 percentage point. Voting average — Trump’s lead is smallest since January.

A Quinnipiac poll released last week showed Biden leading by a 3-point margin, 48% to 45%, and since SOTU there have been 12 total national polls showing Biden leading Trump. (Jessica Tarloff) I got it. last week.

Furthermore, Biden’s progress is being seen not only in national opinion polls, but also in the battleground states that will decide the winner. Mr. Biden currently leads Mr. Trump in Wisconsin (46% to 45%), giving him a 5-point lead. Februaryaccording to the latest Bloomberg/Morning Consult Swing State Tracking. poll.

In Pennsylvania, Biden erased a 6-point lead over Trump. Februarythe states are now tied at 45 percent each, according to the same poll.

And in Michigan, a state at the center of Democratic anxiety because of Biden’s support for Israel and the state’s large Arab population, Trump has a 2-point lead. February Currently tied (45% each) Bloomberg/Morning Consult.

Even in Nevada, where President Trump is leading in the polls. real clear politics, Trump has led in every poll since October and has slowly but steadily closed the distance with Biden.in JanuaryA Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showed Mr. Trump’s lead as high as 8 points (48% to 40%), compared to the former president’s 6-point lead in February.

However, the latest investigation It shows Biden leading Trump by just 2 percentage points (46% to 44%), within the margin of error.

To be clear, polls represent how voters feel at a point in time, but larger trends are clear. Biden’s numbers are improving, albeit slowly, while Trump’s numbers are flat or declining nationally and in battleground states.

Similarly, enthusiasm for Biden is growing outside of the polls.In the 24 hours after the State of the Union, Biden raised $10 million in campaign contributions. Donationrepresenting nearly one-third of the funds held by the Trump campaign as of the latest Federal Election Commission count. Documents to be submitted.

This was not a one-off. On Thursday, Biden held a fundraiser in New York City with former Presidents Obama and Clinton. raised The additional $25 million would add to Biden’s already huge financial advantage over his opponent.

What’s behind Biden’s comeback?There are several possible factors, including Trump spending more time in court than on the campaign trail trying to win over disaffected voters, while Biden visited 5 cities Last week alone, he made his case to voters.

But the main reason for Biden’s rise in approval ratings is probably even simpler. As negative perceptions of the economy ease and voters begin to feel better about the economy, it is logical that they would also feel better about the person leading the country.

As noted in the latest CNBC All-America Economics investigationA quarter of registered voters now say the economy is “excellent” or “good,” up from just 19 percent in December and the highest number since summer 2021. Admittedly, this is still a low number, but the trend is as follows. In favor of Biden.

To that end, Biden has struggled since taking office to convey how the U.S. economy has rebounded under his administration, particularly the strong recovery from the coronavirus and related economic shocks, despite signs of a strong economy. Ta.

Latest job information report The unemployment rate remained at 3.9%, close to historic lows. The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 reached 22 record high price This year we just finished our best first quarter since 2019.

And inflation, which has been a thorn in Biden’s side virtually throughout his presidency and remains a problem, has slowed with the latest round of overall consumer spending. read It’s up 2.5 percent over the past 12 months. This is still higher than the Fed would like, but it is down significantly from his February 2023 figure of 5.19%.

Most importantly, in the latest Personal Consumption Expenditure Report, increased The Fed could cut interest rates in June, lowering borrowing costs just before the election, and many Americans could use the stock market as a visible sign of overall economic strength or weakness. There is sex.

This is not to say that Biden will be heading into the November election, nor is it a guarantee that his return will be only temporary, given his overall approval rating of 39 percent. 538only higher than former President Harry Truman at this point in the Presidency, and four points below Jimmy Carter.

Additionally, voters overwhelmingly support Donald Trump on a number of other issues, including immigration (Trump +48), crime (Trump +28) and inflation (Trump +27), according to CNBC.

Rather, if sentiment about the economy continues to improve, Biden will remove one of the biggest obstacles to reelection: the perception that he is bad for the economy and bad for people’s personal finances. It means deaf.

It remains to be seen whether these trends will continue in Biden’s direction, but if they do, he could maintain an ever-increasing momentum and face an even more formidable challenge in November.

Douglas E. Shawn and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners at the New York-based polling firm Shawn Cooperman Research. They are co-authors of the book America: Unite or Die.