Five Reasons America’s Decline Seems Irreversible
I was feeling pretty pessimistic about our nation’s future when I penned “Five Reasons America’s Decline Seems Irreversible” back in January 2024. It seems like ages ago, right? Now, 21 months later, fresh data and unfolding events point to an even more accelerated decline. Let’s dive into the main reasons.
1. Escalating US Debt
As reported by the US Debt Clock, the national debt stood at $34 trillion in mid-January 2024. That amount surpassed the gross domestic product (GDP) of $27.8 trillion, resulting in a concerning debt-to-GDP ratio of 122.30 percent. Fast forward to today, and the national debt has surged to $37.8 trillion, while GDP has grown to $30.3 trillion—pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to an alarming 124.84 percent.
In June, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent optimistically suggested that a “growth out of debt” was possible, positing that if the economy grew faster than the debt, stability could follow. But, the “what if” scenario feels more like an illusion now. Projections indicate that by 2029, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio could hit 141%.
This perspective aligns with the idea that we’re veering towards destabilization, particularly as interest payments on the national debt consume a growing portion of the U.S. budget. Currently, interest surpasses $1 trillion, making it the government’s third-largest expenditure—exceeding even the defense budget, which is a significant change since January 2024.
2. Declining Academic Proficiency Among Students
Addressing the debt issue demands a workforce that’s educated and capable. Unfortunately, I think we’re facing an epidemic of student underachievement. In my earlier article, I referenced the 2022 National Report Card, which revealed that only 29 percent of fourth graders and 20 percent of eighth graders were proficient in math. While COVID-19 played a role, the downward trend started long before that disruption.
Just last month, the 2024 national report card showed that 45% of high school seniors fall below “basic” proficiency in math—the lowest figure since 2005. The reading comprehension scores were even worse. This lack of mathematical ability is particularly concerning, as it is crucial for driving high-tech innovations that could fuel economic growth.
Regrettably, we’re lagging behind. In 2022, 15-year-olds in America held the 34th position globally in math, science, and reading according to the PISA exam, with Singapore and China leading the way. The next round of PISA testing is underway, and expectations aren’t high.
In our tech-centric world, this poor performance pushes us to depend on skilled foreign workers, compounded by the high-labor-cost anti-immigrant policies of the Trump administration. It’s a cycle where the consequences of underachievement bleed into the next generation.
3. Rising Income and Wealth Inequality
On October 3rd, CNBC released some eye-opening statistics showing that the top 1 percent of Americans hold 29 percent of total household wealth, the top 10 percent claim 67 percent, while the bottom 90 percent have only 33 percent.
In May, the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity published a troubling study which concluded that the bottom 60 percent of income earners possess only 22 percent of disposable income—well below the 39 percent necessary for a minimal quality of life.
This wealth gap may help explain why the upcoming mayoral election in New York city might see Zoran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, coming to the fore. His platform focusing on lowering living costs and providing free services speaks to the struggles of many, contrasting sharply with the fortunes of a wealthy elite.
4. Erosion of National Identity and Patriotism
Traditionally, pride in being American has served as a common thread uniting us since postwar days, fostering our status as a global superpower. Yet, a storm of negative forces has contributed to a growing decline in national pride, especially among the younger generation. Factors like political cynicism, extreme polarization, distrust in leaders, economic hardship, widespread violence, and fears of civil unrest are all at play.
This decline in patriotism could weaken our American identity and even jeopardize national security. Data from Gallup indicates that while 83 percent of those born before 1946 are “very” proud of being American, only 41 percent of Gen Z share that sentiment—a staggering 42-point gap. Closing that divide could be incredibly challenging, leaving us to grapple with threats to national unity.
5. Perception of a Broken Political System
In my January 2024 piece, I described our political landscape as having devolved into a situation dominated by two flawed, unpopular candidates. Since then, we’ve settled deeper into polarization, with discussions of civil war-level hatred rising. Some even claim that political violence may be necessary to “set things right.”
The divide I noted 21 months ago still reigns, with each camp entrenched in their beliefs. Supporters of Team Trump argue that only he can safeguard democracy and prevent an ‘invasion’ at the southern border, while Democrats contend that only Biden can save the nation from Trump’s perceived authoritarianism.
As these reasons continue to point toward a troubling irreversible decline, the divide between red and blue camps remains persistently deep. With a president who rallies under the mantra “Fight, Fight, Fight,” the potential for disastrous internal conflict looms larger than ever, symbolized in an upcoming coin celebrating the president and America’s 250th anniversary.
Meanwhile, “In God We Trust” echoes in a more profound way than it did before.
