Has Donald Trump's once-uncertainable economic advantage disappeared?
A poll released this week by The Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research Kamala Harris suggests she has bridged the gap on key economic issuesall polls agree that this is the biggest issue for multiple voters in this election.
The headline seems dire.
The Associated Press said, “Registered voters are divided on whether they trust Harris or Trump to handle economic issues,'' adding, “The survey results show that Trump was better for the economy.'' “We're reaffirming our losses, and many voters say that's the most important issue of the year.” Election season is more important than abortion, immigration, crime, or foreign affairs. ”
Harris leads in opinion polls Housing costs42% said they believed she would do a better job of handling the issue, and 37% said they trusted President Trump. above employment and unemploymentHarris leads with 43% and Trump with 41%. above tax Among the middle class, Ms. Harris has a 46% lead compared to Mr. Trump's 36%. above Grocery and gas costsTrump holds a lead with 42% and Harris with 40%.
Don't panic: Trump is probably still ahead on the economy
If the AP-NORC poll is accurate, this should be a major concern for the Trump campaign. voters are very dissatisfied with the economyExpectations for a Trump victory could lead voters to believe Trump will be a better economic manager than Harris, with 62% saying the economy is in bad shape, according to AP-NORC. expensive.
Fortunately for Trump and his supporters, There's good reason to be skeptical about the results of the AP-NORC poll.: It's woefully out of sync with other voter surveys, and it's been going on for quite some time.
A month ago, an AP-NORC poll showed Trump and Harris Basically linked to the economy. The Associated Press says, “In the lead-up to the November election, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has a decisive advantage with the public on the economy, and neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has a decisive advantage with the public on the economy, with issues that were once a clear strength for Trump.'' “It has turned into the equivalent of a political jump ball.”
That poll is an outlier. Most other polls continue to show Trump with a significant economic advantage, although the gap has narrowed since Harris replaced Joe Biden as the top Democrat. are.
Here's a summary of what other polls found:
- Latest Reuters/Ipsos A poll released Tuesday found Trump with a 46% to 38% lead on the economy.
- Gallup The latest poll found that 54% of registered voters have more confidence in Trump on the economy, compared to 45% for Harris.
- Ann ABC News/Ipsos The poll found that more Americans trust Trump than Harris to manage the economy, giving Trump an eight-point advantage, 46% to 38%. When it comes to inflation, Trump has a 7 percentage point advantage, 44% to 37%.
- a CBS News/YouGov According to the poll, Mr. Trump leads among voters who say the economy will be a major factor in their vote (88% of voters in the poll), 53% to 47%.
- research by government for you economist According to the survey, 42% of registered voters say the economy will be better under a Trump administration, and 34% say the economy will be better under a Harris administration.
- a washington post In a poll of voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 51% said Trump would do a better job managing the economy, while 36% said Harris would do a better job managing the economy. replied that he would handle it well. Trump leads on inflation, 49% to 33%.
- Poll of voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Redfield & Wilton Strategy In partnership with telegraph Trump has an economic lead in each of these states, but they are tied in Nevada.
- of wall street journal Polls of registered voters in battleground states show Trump with an overall lead of 50% to 40%. Trump leads Arizona 48% to 42%. In Georgia, Mr. Trump has 51% of the vote, while Ms. Harris has 39%. Michigan: Trump 49%, Harris 42%. North Carolina: Trump 52%, Harris 37%. Nevada: Trump 54%, Harris 38%. Pennsylvania: Trump 51%, Harris 40%. And Wisconsin: Trump 47%, Harris 43%.
- of new york times/Siena A poll of Pennsylvania voters found that 55% of voters trust Trump and 42% trust Harris about the economy. In Arizona, Mr. Trump has 58% of the vote, while Ms. Harris has 39%. In Wisconsin, times Trump rose 9 points, 53% to 44%. Trump gained 13 points in Michigan, 55% to 42%.
Is it possible that the AP-NORC poll caught something that all these polls missed? Yes, it's possible, but it's unlikely. In fact, it is more likely that Associated Press poll doesn't accurately reflect voters' opinions And the remaining polls offer a better picture of how people view candidates and the economy.
In other words, President Trump is very likely to maintain his economic advantage even two weeks before the election.
