Barring any major last-minute hiccups, the ceasefire scheduled to take effect on Sunday would cement massive and rapid changes across the Middle East and mark a significant defeat for Islamic extremist groups that have long played a powerful role in the region. may be confirmed.
Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and various Shiite Islamic militias in Iraq and Syria will all emerge from the conflict considerably weakened. Only the Houthis in Yemen are strong, but this may not last long. The Islamic State remains a vestige of its former self.
For an organization like Hamas, just surviving a major conflict is an accomplishment and means that Israel has failed to achieve one of the war's main objectives. However, the concessions Hamas has made since moving closer to a ceasefire last May have highlighted its weakening status.
While reliable statistics do not exist and there is no doubt that Hamas has recruited many new fighters, its military strength has been severely degraded by the Israeli onslaught, with most of its senior and mid-ranking commanders killed. has been done. Although the group retains patchy authority in some areas of Gaza, it has had nothing resembling complete control over the 16 years it has had full control over local government.
In October, Yahya Sinwar, a hardline Hamas leader who masterminded the 2023 raid that triggered the conflict, was killed in a clash with Israeli soldiers in southern Gaza. Hamas' political leader at the time, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated by Israel while in Tehran. The organization is now fundamentally divided between political leaders abroad who take a more pragmatic approach and hardliners in Gaza.
This, along with Israel's reluctance to completely withdraw from Gaza, could pose problems for a ceasefire. Mr. Shinwar's successor in Gaza is his younger brother, Mr. Mohammed, who is in charge of the hostages that must be handed over to secure a deal.
“The ceasefire is in the hands of Mohammed Sinwar. No one from the outside can impose anything on him,” said Mukhaimal Abusada, a political scientist at Al-Azhar University in Gaza.
But Hamas' political leaders outside Gaza are aware of the losses they have suffered, and have criticized the devastation in the Gaza Strip, where Israeli attacks have killed more than 46,000 people, most of them civilians. The Palestinians have also acknowledged that they are partly responsible.
This is important both for the “day after” of the conflict and for how quickly Hamas can recover, if at all.
“In Gaza, people are tired of Hamas… They want anything that will bring about reconstruction, and they know that if Hamas is in charge, the international community will not give them a dollar,” Abusada said. said.
Experts point to high levels of support for Hamas in the occupied West Bank, while others speak of a “crisis of legitimacy” for the organization. One of the big reasons for the ceasefire is the new reality in the Middle East, where many of Hamas's strongest allies are no longer in a position to help them.
Hezbollah, the linchpin of Tehran's “Axis of Resistance”, has suffered heavy losses in the fight against Israel and has since lost most of its leadership and weapons. launched an attack against the group Last October. Equally important was the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, depriving Hezbollah of a major logistics and supply route from Iran, its key backer for more than four decades. Military defeat was followed by political defeat. Last week, the Lebanese parliament finally elect a new president It is committed to curbing Hezbollah's power.
Pro-Iranian armed groups based in Iraq have been unable to inflict significant damage on Israel throughout the conflict.
“Hamas hasn't changed, but the international situation has changed,” said a source close to the organization.
The proxies, carefully cultivated by the Iranian government for decades, are now well aware of their sponsors' recent failures.
“Iran lost Syria in just 10 days, so many Iranians, Iraqis, Lebanese and others will be wondering: How did this happen?” It will take time to recover.” Arman Mahmoudianat the Institute for Global and National Security Studies in Florida.
With Hamas and Hezbollah so weakened, Yemen's Houthis, the most active of the Iranian armed coalition, continue to fire missiles and rockets at Israel and target global shipping. . Experts say a ceasefire is likely to end hostilities, but recent Israeli airstrikes appear to have had little deterrent effect.
Observers have warned that the war will result in a wave of radicalization in many parts of the Muslim world. This has already led to sporadic incidents of violence, and security officials fear there will be more. U.S. officials are particularly concerned after an Islamic State-inspired attack in New Orleans earlier this month.
Local security officials now believe the situation may begin to subside, albeit “just barely.”
Another important development was the operational victory of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria. The group is led by Ahmed al-Sharah, a former senior commander of al-Qaeda and Islamic State. For years, Shaller has sought to convince the Syrian people and the international community that he is abandoning his extremist ideology, reaching out to minorities and downplaying religious issues.
The success of Shara'a's pragmatic strategy stands in contrast to the unchanging approach of the groups he once fought. This could also further weaken extremists.
The final major change is the return of the Palestinian issue to the forefront of regional and world politics. This may give Israeli policymakers and generals pause if they feel vindicated by the apparent success.
“Gaza has been a game-changer for Israel. Its reputation has been badly damaged and there are international criminal cases. [against Israeli leaders]a global moral backlash and conflict has thrust Palestinians onto the international agenda. There is now a whole new generation of global citizens who believe that Palestinians should be free,” said Alia Brahimi, regional expert at the Atlantic Council.
“We cannot assume that a ceasefire will hold, but if it does, it will give everyone an opportunity to do what they should have done all along: war as a means or default solution. It's an opportunity to step away.”
A final end to the Gaza conflict will help reduce chaos and violence across the region, which extremists of all kinds can exploit, experts say.
“If the ceasefire becomes permanent, it will further increase stability in the region,” Abusada said.
