Turkey’s Declining Birth Rate: Erdogan’s Concerns

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addressed the pressing issue of Turkey’s declining birth rates in a speech on Thursday, emphasizing that the country is facing a potential “disaster.” Over the last decade, replacement fertility rates have been sharply falling, prompting urgent calls for action.

Throughout his time in office, Erdogan has promoted the idea of larger Muslim families, yet statistics indicate limited progress. He has previously stated that it’s an Islamic duty to have more children, labeling contraception as “treason” and suggesting that women have a societal obligation to bear children.

In common with many countries with higher levels of wealth, Turkey has seen its population growth slow due to factors like improved education and increased female participation in the workforce. The government’s recent data reveals that Turkey’s birth rate has dropped to 1.48 children per woman, significantly lower than the 2.1 necessary for population replacement. This figure surpasses South Korea’s (0.79) and Japan’s (1.20), but is still beneath America’s rate of 1.60, presenting a challenge for U.S. policy as well.

Diving deeper into the issue at a symposium titled “Family, Culture and Arts” in Ankara, Erdogan expressed concerns about the birth rate while also criticizing the “LGBT movement” and aspects of gender neutrality.

Erdogan remarked, “Our population is increasing, but the growth rate is decreasing. Last year’s birth rate was 1.48.” He insisted that those invested in the country’s future cannot ignore this reality.

“The data underscores that young people are marrying later. Our society has become more focused on individuality, leading to increased loneliness,” he noted.

Particularly critical of the situation among working women, Erdogan insisted that declining birth rates are not solely an issue of employed women. He pointed out that even unemployed women are experiencing lower birth rates. His speech called for men to foster environments that encourage women to have more children.

He added, “A major factor at play is that women are feeling lonely—especially in urban settings. They often lack enough support from their partners in raising children.” He appealed to fathers to offer more help and spend quality time with their families.

Interestingly, Erdogan’s rhetoric appears to have shifted over time. In 2014, he criticized women for using contraception rather than urging more active fatherhood. However, that year, Turkey’s birth rate was still above the replacement level. A marked decline began in 2017 following a failed coup attempt, after which significant crackdowns on dissent occurred.

At the symposium, Erdogan also conveyed his opposition to what he termed “cultural imperialism,” claiming that tolerance towards certain social movements threatens Turkish culture, although he didn’t specify any particular influences.

“We are taking measures to counteract gender neutrality and the LGBT movement, and we will not yield to any complacency,” he stated, according to reports.

Nonetheless, his primary focus was evidently on the alarming birth rate, which he described as a significant concern for the nation’s future.

The Turkish Statistical Institute most recently reported that the national birth rate stands at 1.48. This figure marks a steady decline from 2.38 in 2001 and reflects significant demographic shifts in the country.

There are notable variations in birth rates across different regions. Certain provinces still maintain higher rates, like Sanliurfa, which recorded 3.28 children per woman, while college-educated individuals showed the lowest rates.

Recently, Turkey’s Minister of Family and Social Welfare, Mahinur Ozdemir Goktas, stated in parliament that about half of Turkish families do not have children, warning that this trend could lead to unsustainable societal challenges.

Goktas remarked, “The population issue is existential for our nation, and 50% of households without children underlines the root of numerous social problems.”

Looking ahead, Erdogan has announced a new initiative called the Year of the Family for 2025, which aims to provide financial incentives for families, particularly those welcoming multiple children. The effectiveness of this program remains to be seen as comprehensive statistics have yet to be released.