LThe announcement by Conservative MPs on Wednesday that they had decided on the final leadership contest between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick was greeted with an outpouring of joy among non-Tories. It was done. One Labor MP jokingly emailed the Guardian's political editor asking whether the result needed to be changed. declared as yet another gift. This shocking result left James Cleverley's supporters believing he had a secure lead. cynically supports Robert Jenrick The most likely opponent to beat was the clincher. It was yet another piece of Tory pantomime that has been going on for nearly a decade. “There's a lot of very serious analysis ahead,” LBC presenter James O'Brien said. This is objectively interesting”
I can understand all the fun in this, even though Mr Badenoch and Mr Jenrick don't seem to care at all about why their party lost the general election across the board. A story about who will probably win lasts only a few years It only adds to the sense of cheerfulness. However, it is not at all difficult to look at the future of Conservative Party politics from a slightly different perspective and with a little trepidation.
The new government faces an almost impossible set of financial and economic problems. The reputational damage caused by Freebiegate is likely to continue, and there is still no consistent overall narrative. Since the summer, Keir Starmer's personal approval rating has fallen by 45 percentage points. On Sunday, a new poll by More in Common suggested Labor and the Conservatives. choking. Meanwhile, a huge cloud of toxic right-wing politics, full of racism, conspiracy theories and brutal economics, hovers over much of the world, including the UK.
Don't get me wrong. The fact that Jenrick and Badenoch have chosen to stand so close to the new global right is extremely important. One-country conservatism may be on its way to extinction. This time, its main standard-bearer, Tom Tugendhat, ran a disjointed and disastrous election campaign, insisting that even if Cleverley made it to the final round, his party should be more conservative. The word “normal'' may have been unbearable for the members. So the last hope remaining for the moderates lies in Jenrick's origins as an ordinary man nicknamed “Robert Generic” by his colleagues, and rumors about his prospects of winning, and then himself. Maybe it's because I made it clear. ruthless centristsimilarly Starmer took over the Labor Party. Jenrick denies those stories. and Look at the man who struts around with his hair shaved and insists that shadow ministers and Tory candidates must do so. retreat his line Regarding withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, promise Bring back Jacob Rees-Moggand channeling Enoch Powell: Isn't he too in-depth?
For now, the fact that either he or Badenoch will be the next leader highlights how far their parties are not only moving to the right, but into the realm of a kind of populist paranoia. . She said no matter who was in power, “The left never left”. Her rhetoric on immigration is filled with talk of “ancestral hostilities” and the superiority of one culture over another. As Byline Times journalist Josiah Mortimer recently pointed out, her big speech at the Conservative Party conference not only signaled a culture war and a willingness to fight to the death; Homemade version of Trumpist Project 2025: “A plan to consider our international agreements in judicial review and judicial action. In the Treasury and the Bank of England. In Devolution and Quangos. In the Civil Service and the Health Service.” All of this includes a text version of the speech. contained the following line, peppered with rather alarming exclamation points: Nothing could be more exciting for me! ”
Jenrick's obsession with immigration, and the ECHR, blurs into views that come alarmingly close to unashamed xenophobia. “The sheer scale and lack of integration is eating away at our culture,” he says. he “De facto freezing of net migration”the ideas he sells using provocations straight out of the Nigel Farage manual, namely his suggestion that protesters in London shouting the Arabic exhortation “Allah Akbar” should be arrested; It is a response to the summer riots, framed in part in terms of “dismantling our nation.” “national culture” “Non-integrative multiculturalism”.
These ideas are not interesting or irrelevant. These are Britain's new expressions of a worldview prevalent across Europe, and they will receive a major boost if Donald Trump wins. Here it is sustained and promoted by a media ecosystem commanded by the Mail, Telegraph and GB News, and by Farage's talent for scaring and simply copying Conservatives. Regardless of whether Jenrick's or Badenoch's version wins, the impartiality duties for mainstream broadcasters will mean far-right politics will be further normalized. And at that point, a very big question will cry out for an answer: What does a Conservative Party moving further and further in that direction mean for Labor?
This is an outdated argument in polarized times like ours, but the current state of Conservative politics is bad news for progressives. 20th century history shows that even if the left sets policy, support for some of its ideas from more enlightened conservatives is an asset. For example, the creation of a new welfare state by the Labor government from 1945 to 1951 With support from the Tories They recognized that the social and economic order needed fundamental reform, and that change survived for the next 30 years thanks to support from the Conservative Party. In our time, social care is the best example, but the chances of meaningful steps forward on some big issues are greater if there is buy-in, at least from the political right. That seems like a ridiculously optimistic hope, especially when it comes to Badenoch.
And there is a more pressing point. Whoever wins, will Labor challenge the new Conservative leader's basic ideas? Ministers have no problem vilifying the Conservative Party as bizarre and incompetent. The idea that Starmer will automatically tower over his next opponent seems misplaced, and let's be honest, there aren't many like him either, but Badenoch's tendency to take his mouth off and Jenrick's opportunistic A frivolous atmosphere would probably make them an easy target. But the Labor Party remains I'm scared of real debate about immigration. The government has promised to reduce overall levels in some way, and is clearly open to the right's pet project of processing asylum claims abroad. Moreover, in contrast to Mr Badenoch and Mr Jenrick's cavalier attitude about 'culture' and national identity, Labor leaders and senior officials are increasingly trying to define a modern, liberal, centre-left Britain. They lack the confidence and political acumen to advocate. And without it, we tend to be pulled in the same direction.
Contrary to the Conservative narrative that the left has secretly been in power for the past 14 years, especially Since the Brexit referendum, the hard right has set the terms for our entire politics and is likely to continue to do so. Imagine Starmer's government locked in a decline in popularity and the new leader of the Conservative Party strutting around. And imagine the Labor Party anxiously searching for a solution through a triangular relationship. Even if they ultimately lose, either Jenrick or Badenoch could wield formidable power and influence. With that in mind, we should all stop laughing.
