Fortunately for both Biden and Trump, November will not be a popularity contest. Biden is the luckier of the two, but only by a small amount.
Biden leads Trump in both directions, 44.2% to 44.5%, according to Real Clear Politics’ average national poll. rematchwhile his Unfavorable His approval rating is 55.1%, compared to 53.7% for President Trump. Amid such adversity, it will be important to rally supporters to the polls in November. Biden’s disadvantage is even greater here.
The current president is rematch Neither Biden nor Trump seem likely to be able to gain a large lead, so they appear to be close. Over the past year, Trump’s largest lead was 4.3 percentage points on January 26th. The last time they were tied was on October 19th, when they each had 43.9%. Biden’s last lead was 0.2 percentage points on September 11th, and his largest lead was 2 percentage points on August 23rd.
The sense of urgency today is much different than it was four years ago. After that, Biden appeared to have a comfortable lead throughout. As of October 11, 2020 at the latest, Mr. Biden was leading in Real Clear Politics. average The vote share in the national opinion poll was 10.3%, which was not far below the highest score of 11.8 percentage points on September 18, 2019.
Undoubtedly, Mr. Biden is still far behind his historical lead, but recent polls have shown him close. To understand this very specific and dichotomous race, we need to look closely.
One important factor that is just beginning to emerge is the disconnect between polls of registered voters and likely voters. This difference is only beginning to become clear as pollsters are just beginning to distinguish between two potential voting groups: those who are more eligible to vote and those who have shown a greater propensity to vote. .
Real Clear Politics’ national polling averages are a composite of registered voter polls and likely voter polls. However, when averaged individually, a clear discrepancy appears.
Real Clear Politics’ eight registered voter polls used Monday show Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump by 0.5 percentage point (44% to 43.5%) in both directions. race. Biden also leads 40.8% to 40.2% in five polls tracking the five-way race.
But the picture is probably very different in average voter polls. Three voter polls that are likely to be a binary election show Mr. Trump leading 47.3% to 44.7%. Four polls of the five-way race show Trump’s lead widening to 43.7% to 40%.
In a race this close, such a stark dichotomy is remarkable.
Biden has a history of low approval ratings.in him 1988 and 2008 He ran as a candidate for the Democratic Party, but his results were poor and he was not a viable candidate.in 2016, was succeeded by Obama to Hillary Clinton, even though he was vice president. None of this would have happened if Biden had received significant support.
Even when he appeared to be the clear front-runner and the standard-bearer of the Democratic establishment, he came very close to failure. His campaign was saved from the humiliation of his two predecessors by his performance in South Carolina. Major.Despite his difficult nomination, his support among Democrats was lackluster: in the last edition of Real Clear Politics poll In the Democratic race, Biden held a 60.8% to 32% lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (R-Vermont).
A similar decline in support ratings occurred in the general election. Biden won with 4.5% of the popular vote, despite holding a double-digit lead over Trump at many points in the campaign, including less than a month before Election Day. , only tens of thousands of votes gave Biden the victory. The six battleground states he needed to secure victory in the electoral vote. Today, in a five-way race among likely voters, Biden’s vote share is about 11 points below his own approval rating. 2020 Popularity vote rate.
Biden is likely to continue improving in the polls. There are advantages to incumbency, and the Biden administration appears intent on making the most of them. And Trump is clearly divisive.Biden coverage Advantages of cash It will probably help his poll numbers as well — we may already be seeing evidence of that.
However, Mr. Biden faces three problems: his popularity with the public and the loyalty of his supporters. Historically, Biden does not enjoy the latter because he has never won the former. Another problem for Biden is that he is running against someone to whom his supporters appear to be very committed. To understand the impact, let’s look back at 2020.
In Real Clear Politics’ last national poll, average Before the election, Biden led Trump 51.2% to 44%. In the election, Biden’s popular vote rate increased by just 0.2 percentage points to 51.4 percent. Trump, by contrast, rose 2.9 percentage points. Biden’s actual vote lead was less than half of what it was a month ago. Trump’s approval rating among likely voters currently exceeds his approval rating. 2020 final popular vote (47.3 percent vs. 46.9 percent).
In the midst of the strange circumstances of the 2024 election, polls require further scrutiny. What matters is not the polls, but who gets counted in the polls.
Biden has historically struggled in this area, while Trump has overperformed. We see evidence of this again in today’s polls, which are split between registered and likely voters.
JT Young served on the professional staff of the House and Senate from 1987 to 2000, with the Treasury Department and Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2004, and as director of government communications for a Fortune 20 company from 2004 to 2023. I served.
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