The FBI raid on the founder of online gambling site Polymarket shows that the Lawfare era under the Biden-Harris administration was not over after Donald Trump's decisive victory on Election Day.
Instead, the “deep state” chose a quarry that is less famous, less powerful, less wealthy, shorter in stature, and noisier than the next president. And he might be the worst dressed person I've ever met.
But Polymarket boss Shane Coplan seems like a convenient punching bag for those furious that his technology predicted elections with astonishing accuracy.
His online betting market also presciently predicted that President Joe Biden would withdraw from the race at the same time that network experts took note of Fighting Joe's unprecedented physical fitness. I had predicted it.
Mr. Koplan is known in New York startup circles as a privately cheerful but publicly shy tech purist who spends days sitting behind his laptop while “jamming” Polymarket's code. It is said that there are also.
In the several years I have known Koplan, I have never once heard him discuss politics with interest or enthusiasm. Starting a conversation about politics is a sure-fire way to get your coplan back on your iPhone and send emails with your small, nifty engineering team.
Perhaps this is to his detriment. Democrats appear to have lost their iron grip on Big Tech by bashing builders and enriching those who have mastered the art of lobbying and regulatory gymnastics. Is this where we want young innovators to focus their precious time and limited capital?
Given the important role polymarkets and coplans have played in elections, and the number of important people who use them as invaluable sources of information, there is a possibility that polymarkets and coplans could be “crushed” by the FBI. So it's not a starter. Elon Musk also tweeted his support.
More importantly, it is not illegal to bet on news or elections. Although it's perfectly legal in the U.S., Polymarket itself has endured years of regulatory challenges that have forced it to sell overseas while less popular competitors happily make way for faster approvals at home. I am still seriously getting over it.
But that's exactly what Lawfare is. They choose a politically attractive target and try to find out everything they can to pin charges against him.
But what's interesting about Lawfare is that it seems to transform the shy, introverted, odd ducks of our society into the kinds of men who can speak up and fight for themselves.
What is lost in the FBI's “high-profile investigation” approach is that Coplan and Polimarket are not right-wing heroes because they hold or project partisan stances. They have the support of millions of people because they want a truly neutral alternative to the Des Moines Register and other crystal ball-like methods of assessing reality.
But here are some predictions you can make without the help of technology: If forced into the PR spotlight, Coplan and Polymarket will rise to the occasion.
Countless people who knew Koplan and invested in his big ideas have wondered why he wasn't the kind of founder he wanted to be known for. He has all the skills and opportunities to become a compelling TV and podcast star. His discipline and apolitical personality have held him back so far.
But if the FBI continues to be more partisan than the goals it is pursuing, all bets may be off.
Brian Goldberg is an entrepreneur who owns Bustle Digital Group, which operates media properties such as Bustle, Nylon, W Magazine, and Gawker.
