Joe Biden and Donald Trump secured delegates and secured their party’s nomination. It looks like the rematch menu has been decided. Or is it? Barring any personal misfortune, Trump will be on the ballot, but the forces running the Democratic Party may only intervene to protect their chances at the White House while preventing the disaster of a negative vote.
Imagine just a few weeks until the Democratic convention in August, and Biden is consistently trailing Trump in the polls. Democrats across the country are depressed and panicking. Electoral College polls show Trump’s victory is decisive.(Related: Stephen Moore: Here are some of Joe Biden’s biggest economic rants)
a March Gallup Poll It helps explain Biden’s dismal polling. It showed Biden hemorrhaging votes from key demographics, down 13 points since 2020 among 18- to 29-year-olds, 16 points among Hispanics and 19 points among Blacks. Indicated. All signs point to this downward trend continuing.
Democrats may graciously accept the certainty of defeat. A big chance.
Or maybe the swamp will make old Joe an offer he can’t refuse. Step aside and I’ll see that your family is safe and well-off, or I’ll stay in the race and if you lose, I’ll throw your family away (Republican).
Although stubborn, proud and arrogant, Biden had no intention of putting his family at risk. Just before the tournament, Joe accepts Swamp’s request and declines.
Of course, the party leadership would not forcefully remove Joe if they had not first decided who would be at the top of the new ticket. Their choices are many. There are few good options for them.
For Democrats, California Governor Gavin Newsom is the obvious choice. He’s smart, articulate, politically savvy, and very progressive, but part of the problem is that he’s the obvious choice. He would win on the West Coast and the Northeast, but would lose badly in most of the rest of the country. Progressives love California, but in other parts of the country they just see San Franciscans dancing in the streets like Gene Kelly singing in the rain, but they can’t dance or sing. They’re not trying to save money, they’re just avoiding begging, used needles, and human waste.
The second choice is Vice President Kamala Harris. If Joe Biden’s only problem is age, Harris would be the natural successor to carry on Biden’s policies. Of course, age is not Biden’s only problem. The other really big issue is immigration and the southern border, and all Democrats have to carry that heavy burden.
Harris’ problem is that she is, and always has been, a terrible politician, but her poll numbers are so low that she is likely to be jealous of Biden. If she is sidelined, assuming Democrats retain the White House on a new ticket, Harris will need to be reassured with plums like a promised Supreme Court spot.
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker is also mentioned, but Pritzker is Democrat Chris Christie. You don’t have to say it.
Washington says Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has made high-profile comments that have put her 2020 campaign under fire as a candidate who would “break glass in an emergency.” I have no qualifications.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, whose anonymity outside of Michigan is an asset, remains a likely option. It gives her room to breathe. She will be a “new and improved” candidate that will do wonders for marketing. She could regain her advantage over suburban white women and give Democrats a chance to win Michigan, without which victory in November will be nearly impossible.
Is there a chance that any of these alternatives will win in November? Absolutely. Freed from the inevitability of defeat, the Democratic bloc will bury their differences and rally behind the national flag. Democratic voters likely breathed a sigh of relief as they embraced their new supporters. Independent voters in battleground states who previously disliked their choices will give the newcomer a more than fair hearing.
Could Biden’s replacement plan really divert the Trump train with just weeks to announce and go on sale? Maybe not. But Democrats will have a much better chance than the train wrecks of old when they couldn’t do that.
J.D. Foster is the former Chief Economist of the Office of Management and Budget and the former Chief Economist and Executive Vice Chairman of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now lives relatively freely in the hills of Idaho.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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