michigan wolverines Junior quarterback JJ McCarthy will have a big decision to make after this season: return to Michigan for a senior year or enter the 2024 NFL Draft.
McCarthy compiled a 25-1 record this season as Michigan State's QB and finished 10th in Heisman Trophy voting. McCarthy has thrown for 2,630 yards with 19 touchdowns and four interceptions this season, rushing for 146 yards and three scores, and ranks among the top in a variety of stats. McCarthy currently ranks third in ESPN's total QBR metric (89.2), second in the nation in completion percentage (74.2) and sixth in passer rating (170.3).
McCarthy is a two-way quarterback who has shown consistent accuracy and excellent arm strength, making him destined to be the most drafted quarterback of the Jim Harbaugh era. Harbaugh, the University of Michigan head coach, called McCarthy a generational talent at Michigan quarterback. feel He “looks a lot like Andrew Luck.”
McCarthy hasn't decided whether to go pro yet. To tell Although his focus is solely on Alabama, that doesn't deter analysts from including McCarthy in mock drafts and draft rankings.
Let's take a look at what scouts and pundits are saying about McCarthy.
ESPN's Mel Kiper feel McCarthy could fall as a wild card on Day 2
“[An intriguing wild card at quarterback is] “Michigan's JJ McCarthy was one of the most difficult players to evaluate in this entire class,” Kiper said. “He has the tools to take the No. 3 QB spot, but he just couldn't convince me until the end. Where were the 'wow' pitches?” I didn't see him make much progress. Sure, he only had four interceptions, but three of those were against his green bowlers? Plus, the Wolverines were beating all of their opponents until November. He wasn't asked to beat teams with his arm. “It's clear that McCarthy has a huge amount of talent, but not every NFL team is going to be crazy about him, which means he could go down to Day 2. I'm making him the No. 7 QB.”
Washington Post NFL Insider Jason La Canfora said: hearing McCarthy has a chance of advancing to the first round.
Many found it odd how little he was asked to throw the football as the Wolverines soared up the national rankings and headed toward the Big Ten title. That was true even for smaller programs. Midway through the season, McCarthy had 23 pass attempts against Maryland, 17 against Indiana, and 20 against Minnesota. “But people really like him,” the evaluator said. “I get your point, but they really like him. I think he's going. [in the first round]. [Coach Jim] Harbaugh knows how to get ready to play here. He has one of the best lines in the country and one of the best running games in the country. … I mean, coaches want to run the ball and play it safe. I don't think that will keep him out of the first round. ”
ESPN draft analyst Matt Miler spoke with NFL scouts. compared McCarthy to Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins
Do you know who can go higher than you think? ” he asked an AFC East scout in a text message last week. “JJ McCarthy”
The Michigan quarterback is beloved by scouts who have studied his game and watched the junior passer throw firsthand. McCarthy is talented. He finished third in the nation with an 89.2 QBR and threw 19 touchdown passes with four interceptions.
“I don't think a lot of people have looked into McCarthy yet,” said a scout in the Michigan area. “But if they do that, he's going to rise up. He's going to dominate events like the Senior Bowl.”
The main knock on McCarthy's game this year has more to do with the Wolverines than his skill set. Michigan's scheme doesn't call for much pure passing from him. The Wolverines moved the ball frequently from the start, with McCarthy only allowing 287 pass attempts this season (77th in FBS) and averaging 19.3 per game late in the season against a third-ranked opponent. He didn't attempt a single pass in the second half of a 24-15 win over Penn State in mid-November.
And Michigan's throw success rate is only 44.5% (124th out of 133 teams), so McCarthy hasn't been able to demonstrate his passing ability at a high level. That created questions that Junior simply couldn't answer on tape. If he declares for the draft, he will have to rely on the pre-draft process. As of now, McCarthy sits at No. 19 on my board overall, but he could definitely move up the rankings as draft time approaches.
“To me, he's the athletic Kirk Cousins,” the Michigan-area scout said.
CBS Sports' Ryan Wilson believe The playoffs will have a big impact on McCarthy's draft stock.
“J.J. McCarthy has a conversational arm and open-field athleticism for a first-rounder. And there are NFL teams that really like those physical tools. But he's a first-rounder with a conversational arm and open-field athleticism.” He needs to be more consistent than he is. Some of that is being asked of him on offense right now, but he may be asked to do a lot more in the playoffs, and a lot of us don't think he's capable of doing that. If he plays like he thinks he has, he'll force his way into the QB3 conversation.”
conclusion
Whether McCarthy returns to Michigan or enters the draft could largely depend on his performance against Alabama and whether Michigan reaches the national championship and wins it all.As it stands, it feels like there are at least three quarterbacks ahead of McCarthy on the draft board – USC's Caleb Williams, North Carolina's Drake Maye, and LSUJayden Daniels. There are several other quarterbacks who could be drafted before McCarthy: Bo Nix of Oregon State and Michael Penix Jr. of Washington State. That means this draft class is loaded with talent at quarterback.
McCarthy, who turns 21 in January, could benefit from returning to Michigan next season to add more weight and add a little more seasoning to his game. This season is the first time McCarthy has weighed over 200 pounds. Currently, his weight is listed at 6 feet 3 inches and 202 pounds, but he still needs to add weight to his frame to absorb big hits. He too often puts himself in dangerous situations, takes wasted hits and runs the ball, which could have devastating consequences for the NFL. McCarthy was injured while running against Penn State in November and was less than 100 percent for the rest of the regular season.
Regardless of whether you agree with McCarthy's game or not, if he is a major catalyst in Michigan's path to a national championship, there's no way he won't declare for the draft. Strike when the iron is hot, especially when there are more quarterback-needy teams than usual in the NFL.
