Former President Donald Trump's odds of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris have soared to a 10-point spread, JL Partners' election model revealed Thursday.
The prediction comes as the model found Trump's odds rose 4 points from Monday and 9 points since the debate, leading to Harris' so-called honeymoon since entering the 2024 White House race in July. This indicates that it appears to have ended.
The model simulated the election process approximately 8,000 times to create the probability that each candidate would win a state and the probability that a candidate would win the Electoral College.
of daily mail rob cleary reported About the survey results:
However, state-by-state numbers show that the blue wall in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan is tilting toward Trump, giving Trump an overall advantage in winning the White House. It has become.
The probability of winning is 55.2%. Harris' approval rating is 44.6%, making it extremely unlikely that there will be a tie.
The best way to understand what this means is to imagine running the model multiple times, for all different states, and with all different permutations and combinations. If all of this were to happen, Trump would win an average of 55.2% of the time.
Callum Hunter, a data analyst at JL Partners, thinks President Trump could widen his lead further in the coming weeks.
“Things continue to move against Mr. Harris,” Hunter said. “Her approval rating increased in September as a result of changes to debates and ballot access, but things are starting to return to where they were in early September.”
