There exists a parallel world in which Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin did not kneel on George Floyd for 9 minutes and 29 seconds.
In that world, the Democratic Party did not succumb to identity politics in the midst of the Black Lives Matter protests of 2020. Joe Biden was not forced to choose a running mate less popular than Kamala Harris, the first Democratic candidate to lose a primary election just a few months earlier.
Biden was never without a successor, but his lack of one made continuing to campaign in 2024 at age 81 seem like a good idea. As a result, in that world, Donald Trump’s chances of being re-elected seemed zero.
We don’t live in that parallel universe, but it’s a strong reminder that one seemingly isolated event can have cascading effects on complex systems.
Biden now faces a dilemma: continue to live under the delusion that he is the only Democrat who can beat Trump, or give up the position he has striven for his whole life with no clear plan for who to replace him.
For now, his choice seems to be the former: By his own admission, Biden performed poorly in last week’s debate, but the White House’s post-debate spin has his campaign feeling like it’s living in a parallel universe.
For example, the president “Trustworthy Engagement” 10am to 4pm In 2008, Hillary Clinton ran a famous ad asking who could be trusted to vote. “3 a.m. phone call” The White House’s obvious answer? “Leave a voicemail and we’ll get back to you within seven hours.”
Biden I suggested a different line The day after the debate, Biden acknowledged that he could not walk as easily, talk as smoothly, or debate as well as he once did. It seemed to me that voters should not ask the obvious questions: whether he could negotiate as easily with foreign leaders, work as smoothly with an opposing Congress, or make decisions on nuclear weapons as well.
Third, the White House is worried about Biden’s disastrous debate defeat. “Overprepared” It’s a good thing that decision-making in the situation room doesn’t require processing large amounts of complex information.
Fourth, the president was reportedly suffering from a cold, but Biden didn’t think to inform viewers of that fact before the debate.
Fifth, the president’s performance “Bad night.” But Biden doesn’t see the need to hold a White House news conference — or, for that matter, answer hostile questions in a Sunday interview on Fox News to allay concerns about his mental health.
The sixth and most recent is: Jet lag made him do that.This is despite Biden returning to Washington from overseas 11 days before the debate.
Over the past few years, Biden has responded to critics who say he is too old to do the job effectively with two phrases: “look at me.” The only problem is, the voters are.
Biden’s debate performance was disastrous. Even worse is the attempt at damage control, with progressives calling for his fire and allies equivocating.
More than 70% of Americans believe Biden does not have the “necessary mental or cognitive health to serve as president.” New YouGov poll.
Biden has finally succeeded in uniting Republicans and Democrats this time. The problem is that he will not be able to stay in office for another four years.
If Biden’s handling of his awkward debate performance was the ultimate test of his decision-making ability, then he failed on this criterion — a legitimate factor for voters to consider in judging his competence, and ultimately his bid for a second term.
Conservative commentator Sarah Isgur I recently wrote “After 20 years of doing these jobs [in Washington]”The people within them come to truly believe that they are indispensable, and this fearsome group is reinforced by those around them who benefit from their position. They construct a false world in which we all live together.”
That parallel world may be Biden’s perception of 2024. But it is not America’s reality.
thomas gift He is Associate Professor and Founding Director of the Centre for American Politics at University College London.
