Lamar Jackson joins the chat.
The NFL MVP race is believed to be much closer than previously thought after the star quarterback delivered another memorable and spectacular performance on national television. Making Week 17 worth the gamble.
Josh Allen is still the MVP betting favorite, but his odds have dropped to -200 at DraftKings. The Bills quarterback was around -900 just two weeks ago.
Jackson returned to serious consideration after scoring three touchdowns on Christmas Day and the week before, dropping his odds to +145. The reigning MVP leads the league in QBR with 39 touchdown passes, just four interceptions, 852 rushing yards, and four TDs.
Voter fatigue usually hinders back-to-back winners, but a season that good could overcome that resistance. After all, Aaron Rodgers just did it in 2020 and 2021.
That's why I believe the matchup between Buffalo and the Jets will be a lucrative opportunity. Allen has +105 odds to throw at least two touchdown passes against a defense that has been decimated recently by Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa.
Allen should improve, especially since he tends to excel in adverse conditions. The weather forecast says it will continue to rain, but temperatures will be quite warm.
The MVP storyline is what makes prop bets a solid play. I believe Allen's chances depend on this performance, especially since he will likely miss next week's final regular season game. If he doesn't perform against the Jets, Jackson's award will likely change.
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I believe the underlying narrative will influence play-calling in the red zone, especially if the Bills hold a comfortable lead. He can run for a score at any time, and his odds are -115, separate from passing touchdowns. But I think it's more likely that he'll be given the go-ahead to find the end zone through the air.
The Bills hope to win the game and secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC. That's definitely a top priority. But they also want their franchise cornerstone to win MVP, and will make certain decisions to accomplish both. That's why I think +105 odds have value and are a much better bet than -200 on an MVP ticket.
