Iowa Democrats Target Senate Seat

The race to fill the seat of retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst from Iowa is shaping up to be one of the tightest Senate contests in 2026. Ernst, who made history as the first female senator from Iowa, secured her position in 2020 with a 6.5-point margin during a year when President Trump won the state by 8 points and later by 13 points in 2024.

Recent polling indicates that Iowans hold an unfavorable view of Trump, with a 13-point shift reflected in a Fox News survey, showing 42% favorable and 55% unfavorable ratings. This marks a significant change from his slight positive rating of 6 points in the November 2024 Voter Analysis.

It’s been nearly two decades since Iowa last elected a Democratic senator—Tom Harkin in 2008. Currently, Democrat Josh Turek holds a narrow 4-point lead over Republican Ashley Hinson (50% to 46%), a margin that falls within the poll’s error range.

Turek enjoys a robust 15-point lead among voters who are highly motivated to vote, which seems to be driven by heightened enthusiasm among Democrats (67% very motivated) compared to Republicans (53%).

While Hinson’s favorability rating is more favorable than Trump’s, it remains at -7 points (42% favorable, 49% unfavorable). Turek, on the other hand, boasts a net favorability of +18 (51% favorable, 33% unfavorable), leaving 16% of voters undecided about him and 9% about Hinson.

In direct matchups, Turek has strong support from college-educated women (65%), independents (59%), urban dwellers (59%), and voters under 30 (55%). Meanwhile, Hinson finds backing from white evangelical Christians (67%), men over 45 (55%), veterans (52%), and men without a college degree (52%). Support from MAGA Republicans reflects a 23-point advantage for her over non-MAGA Republicans (95% to 72%).

Overall, Turek garners support from 96% of Democrats, while Hinson receives 88% from Republicans.

Looking ahead, there’s a noticeable assurance among Turek’s supporters, with 82% certain of their choice, compared to 72% for Hinson. A significant number of Hinson’s backers (nearly 30%) express potential indecision.

Notably, many voters seem to support Hinson more for her than against her opponent, with a vote split of 77% for Hinson against 60% for Turek. Trump endorsed Hinson last September, and public sentiment appears divided about her ties with the former president—50% expressing concern about her closeness to him, while 48% show little to no concern.

Conversely, only 37% of voters express worry over Turek’s potentially liberal stance on various issues, allowing a majority (59%) to feel unconcerned.

Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster involved with the Fox News survey, noted that despite Iowa trending red over the past decade, current data indicates a potential shift back toward swing state dynamics. Factors like rising living costs, skepticism surrounding foreign involvement, and dissatisfaction in the agricultural sector are significant contributors to this trend.

According to recent data, the percentage of Iowans feeling economically disadvantaged has jumped to 42%, up from 31% a year ago, with inflation being the primary concern for 39% of voters. Other critical issues include health care (14%) and immigration (13%), but only a small fraction prioritizes issues like abortion (6%) or crime (2%).

Turek appears to have an advantage among voters focused on inflation (+15 points), health care (+53 points), and political division (+20 points), while Hinson leads overwhelmingly on immigration, with an 88-point difference.

In related news, Iowa’s Republican Governor Kim Reynolds has opted not to pursue a third term. Current polls show Democratic candidate Rob Sund with a 9-point lead over Republican Zach Rahn for her position.

Sund seems to attract some cross-party support, gaining 11% of Hinson’s base as opposed to 7% of Turek’s supporters supporting Rahn. Additionally, a higher percentage of Sund supporters report confidence in their choice compared to Rahn’s supporters (81% vs. 74%).

Sund holds a favorable rating of +21, while Rahn’s rating stands unfavorably by 3 points with a disapproval rate of 20%.