Georgia Senate Race Update

Georgia’s Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff narrowly secured his Senate seat in a runoff against Republican David Perdue back in January 2021, winning by just over 1 percentage point. However, recent polling indicates a shift in momentum, with Ossoff now enjoying a double-digit lead over Republican Mike Collins for the upcoming 2026 Senate election.

Collins garnered a late endorsement from former President Trump during the Republican primary runoff in June, defeating Derek Dooley, who had the support of Georgia Governor Brian Kemp. In the 2020 presidential race, Trump barely lost Georgia by less than 1 point, but he managed to win the state by about 2 points in 2024. Back in 2016, Trump won Georgia by more than five points.

A Fox News poll released on Wednesday revealed that Ossoff’s approval rating stands at 56% among registered voters in Georgia, while Collins trails behind at 43%.

Support for incumbent Democrats is particularly strong among black voters (87%), those under 30 (68%), independents (68%), moderates (66%), and women under 45 (66%). In fact, 82% of Georgia voters are committed to casting their ballots, positioning Ossoff with an 11-point advantage at 55% compared to Collins’ 44%.

On the other hand, Collins finds his strongest backing among white evangelical Christians (79%), white men without a college degree (65%), and rural voters (55%). Approximately half of gun-owning households (53%) and veterans (50%) also support him.

Ossoff has clearly benefited from heightened party loyalty, with nearly all Democrats (96%) backing him. Over 80% of his supporters express that they are voting for him rather than simply against Collins.

Conversely, Collins receives support from 89% of Republicans, but only 56% say they are voting for him; 44% indicate their vote is primarily to oppose Ossoff.

Interestingly, nearly a quarter of non-MAGA Republicans lean towards supporting Democrats, while only 4% of MAGA supporters feel the same.

Polling data suggests Ossoff’s demographics remain similar to previous analyses, while Collins has not performed as strongly as Perdue did.

Both candidates exhibit comparable levels of enthusiasm among their supporters, with 81% of Ossoff’s backers stating they are certain to vote for him, and 78% of Collins’ supporters indicating the same. Furthermore, 84% of Collins’ supporters are also keen to cast their votes.

Regarding public perception, nearly 60% of voters view Ossoff favorably (58%), outpacing Collins (44%) and even Trump (42%). Trump’s favorability has notably decreased by 5 points since his rating of 47% in Georgia in 2024.

Georgians are generally more concerned about Collins being closely associated with Trump (53%) than they are about Ossoff being perceived as too liberal (47%).

When it comes to issues affecting their voting decisions, inflation ranks highest, with 40% of voters saying it’s their primary concern. Health care (13%), political division (11%), immigration (11%), and employment (11%) follow. Issues like the Iranian conflict (5%), crime (5%), and abortion (3%) garnered less attention.

Ossoff enjoys a significant lead among voters prioritizing inflation (+21), health care (+40), and political issues (+18), while Collins has a strong lead among those focused on immigration (+45).

Daron Shaw, a Republican who co-authored the study alongside Democrat Chris Anderson, remarked, “As Brooklyn Dodgers announcer Red Barber used to say, Ossoff is ‘sitting in the catbird seat.’ My hunch is that the race will be even more competitive, but Collins will have to put in the effort to convince both Republicans and independents that he, along with Trump, can improve affordability for average Georgians.”

Despite the inflation concerns, half of the respondents (51%) reported stability in their finances, while 35% feel their financial situation is declining. Only 14% believe they are making financial progress.

In the Georgia gubernatorial race, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms holds a 52% approval rating, compared to Republican Rick Jackson at 47%, leading by 5 points, which falls within the margin of error for the poll.

This division illustrates varied opinions, with 11% of Ossoff’s supporters crossing party lines to back Jackson while 5% of Collins’ supporters favor Lance Bottoms.

Supporters of Lance Bottoms seem more assured in their voting commitment compared to supporters of Jackson, at 80% and 75%, respectively.

Both candidates have positive net favorability ratings; 52% view Bottoms positively against 38% negatively, while Jackson garners a favorable view from 43% and an unfavorable rating from 38%. About 10% of voters reported they were unfamiliar with either candidate.