Is Justin Roblewski’s Early-Season Success Sustainable?
When he delivers a fastball like he did on Friday night, it’s hard to imagine anyone could stop him.
On Saturday night, Roblewski showcased the best performance of his impressive 2026 season as the Dodgers defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 4-2 in the first game of their postseason rematch.
He dominated for seven innings, allowing only one run on a single hit, which didn’t happen until the sixth inning. He struck out a career-high nine batters, significantly upping his game compared to previous outings.
Most notably, his fastball seemed revitalized, averaging 94.9 mph and hitting 97 mph multiple times, contributing to all nine of those strikeouts.
“I feel like there’s a little something missing,” Roblewski remarked. “Honestly, I’m feeling more confident and set out to really attack.”
This season, the 25-year-old had often pitched to minimize damage rather than go for strikeouts. This approach allowed him to complete six or more innings in nearly all his starts. However, his strikeout rate remained alarmingly low, casting doubts on whether his strong early numbers were fleeting.
Yet, in that high-pressure game against a talented Phillies lineup, Roblewski showed a different side. He challenged hitters directly in the zone, giving them little chance to connect.
“He’s been through a significant number of innings this season,” manager Dave Roberts commented. “It’s a positive when a pitcher can produce swings and misses within the zone.”
Roblewski outshined three-time All-Star Zach Wheeler, whose struggles continued, allowing four home runs for only the second time in his career as the Dodgers’ offense began to click.
Freddie Freeman opened the scoring with a solo homer in the first inning, and Max Muncy hit his 13th of the season in the second to tie for the team lead. Shohei Ohtani followed up with another solo shot in the third, while Will Smith, who had been slumping, contributed a hit that put the Dodgers up 4-0 before the Phillies even made their mark.
“We capitalized on some of his mistakes,” Muncy noted.
Meanwhile, Roblewski rendered the Phillies nearly helpless. He recorded an average fastball speed of 96 mph in the first inning, striking out big hitters like Kyle Schwarber, Trey Turner, and Bryce Harper successively. The Phillies didn’t even get a base runner until the fourth inning, when a miscommunication led to a dropped fly ball.
Roblewski didn’t let that faze him, continuing to assert his dominance. He struck out seven in a row, with five of those coming by way of strikeout.
“He was on the offense,” Roberts said. “It was really exciting to see him perform like that.”
It wasn’t until the sixth inning that Schwarber hit a low fastball to center, marking his 22nd home run of the season and ruining Roblewski’s hopes for a no-hitter. “I was really frustrated about that hit,” he confessed.
He refocused quickly, though, and faced the next four batters without issue, wrapping up with a surprising 88 pitches.
“If I can pitch consistently at 97, things will go a lot smoother for me,” Roberts added.
What It Means
The Dodgers (37-20) are currently on a six-game winning streak, boasting a 13-2 record in their last 15 games.
This weekend’s series against the rejuvenated Phillies (29-28) was seen as a significant challenge. Despite their rocky start, Philadelphia has recovered with a 20-8 record since a managerial change.
As last year showed, the Dodgers emerged victorious once more.
Who Is Hot
It’s notable that prior to Friday, Roblewski had the second-lowest strikeout rate among pitchers logging at least 50 innings this season—5.01 strikeouts per nine innings.
This was partly intentional, as Roblewski aimed to induce weak contact for quicker outs. Still, he’d grown frustrated as his fastball had dipped from 96 mph last year to 93.7 mph when back in the rotation.
Last week, however, he felt he’d returned to form. In a game against the Brewers—despite giving up five runs—he reached speeds over 97 mph for the first time this season.
“I can’t quite put my finger on it,” he said. “But I felt a return to form, ready for the challenge ahead.”
On Friday, he efficiently neutralized the potent Phillies offense, showcasing an aggressive fastball that accounted for 13 swings and misses, striking out a number of batters at pivotal moments.
“I can’t say it bothered me, that previous dip,” Roblewski explained. “I was happy with the outs but felt this odd transition. Tonight felt more natural in a way.”
Who Is Not?
Critics who anticipated regression from Roblewski were vindicated as he had allowed 14 runs over his last three outings, seeing his ERA balloon from 1.25 to 3.07.
Those games highlighted the risks of his approach—softly hit balls would find holes, and mistakes could lead to runs. When things got dicey, he had often relied on defensive support.
But Friday illustrated another potential for Roblewski, demonstrating he can become a power pitcher when his fastball is on point.
“It gives him a bigger margin for error,” Roberts commented. “In earlier starts, he was allowing soft contact. But if he can produce swings and misses, we could see more strikeouts like tonight. It was an impressive outing against a solid team.”
To the Next
The Dodgers and Phillies will continue their matchup on Saturday, with Roki Sasaki (3-3, 4.93) facing off against Phillies southpaw Jesus Luzardo (4-4, 4.38).
