Most battleground state polls show Vice President Kamala Harris leading in key battleground states that could decide the election, but pollsters in two Southern states are bucking the trend and giving former President Donald Trump a large lead.
An Insider Advantage/Trafalgar poll in seven battleground states showed Trump on track to win 296 electoral votes, suggesting Harris is already losing ground.
Matt Towery of Georgia Insider Advantage Trump is leading in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina (only Georgia is down 0.4%).
He and Robert Currahi Trafalgar (which covers Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan) ranked in the top three in both the 2016 and 2020 polling cycles because its methodology “allows us to capture Trump votes that other pollsters may not be able to capture.”
To be sure, Trump's leads are all so small, within the margin of error, that it's entirely possible that each state could go either way on Election Day.
But Towley believes Harris is biding her time as the novelty wears off.
“The momentum we saw after the Democratic National Convention has, in some ways, come to an end,” Towery said.
He also said the surge in Democratic support seen in polls after Harris replaced Biden in office has slowed and the two are now “about even.”
He believes the “turnout election” will be heavily determined by the “make-or-break” presidential debate next week.
If Trump presents himself as “pragmatic”, “this could be a real turning point, just like the 1980 Carter-Reagan debates basically resulted in an agreement”, Towery predicted.
Meanwhile, Currahi, a South Carolina resident, agreed that the debate is important, saying that while the former president may say something that “overshadows” the rest of the debate, Harris “has the most to lose” and is in a no-win situation.
Mr Karahi believes there are more “conservative Democrats” siding with Mr Trump than Ms Harris, and suggests the media feel “ignored” and “angry” because Ms Harris has not shown interest in doing interviews.
But while polls show Trump ahead, Currahi warned that the “Democratic forces” could close the gap by “a point or two,” so his slim lead in September may not translate into the final result.
