Vice President Kamala Harris is either ahead of or tied with former President Donald Trump in all but one battleground state, and her support is on the rise, a new poll has found.
On average, Harris led Trump 48% to 47% in the top seven battleground states, and outperformed Trump in Georgia and Nevada, where she had a slight lead. According to a Cook Political Report poll.
When third-party candidates were included, Harris, 59, edged out Trump by another point, 46% to 44%.
In head-to-head battles, Harris won 48% in Arizona to Trump’s 46%, and she also followed in Georgia (48% to 48%), Michigan (49% to 46%), Nevada (45% to 48%), North Carolina (48% to 47%), Pennsylvania (49% to 48%) and Wisconsin (49% to 46%).
With third-party candidates also weighing in, Harris won 46% of the vote in Arizona to Trump’s 42%, then saw gains in Georgia (46% to 46%), Michigan (46% to 44%), Nevada (42% to 47%), North Carolina (46% to 44%), Pennsylvania (48% to 43%) and Wisconsin (48% to 43%).
When President Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, the inclusion of a third-party candidate would have been advantageous for President Trump.
Polls have shown mixed results on whether third-party candidates would thwart Trump more than Harris: Some recent polls have found that Trump trails Harris when third-party candidates are taken into account, while some polls from RealClearPolitics show the opposite.
For example, Harris has a 1.1 point lead over Trump in the most recent election. National RCP A tally of two-way polls. When third-party candidates are added, the gap narrows to 0.8 percentage points.
Another notable finding from the Cook Political Report poll was that Harris beat Trump in North Carolina, generally considered one of the most Republican of the key battleground states.
The latest polls show Trump has the second-largest lead in North Carolina, a battleground state. RCP Tabulation The margin of victory is 2.4 percentage points, behind only Nevada, where Trump has a 3.5 percentage point lead. Per RCP.
Nevada has not voted Republican for president since 2004.
President Trump in June unveiled a proposed “no tip tax” policy that appeared aimed at the service-rich Battleborn State and which Governor Harris emulated at a rally in Los Angeles last week. The measure could cost between $150 billion and $250 billion over the next decade, according to the Committee for Budget Responsibility.
Overall, Harris appears to have narrowed Trump’s lead in battleground states by about six percentage points since May.
A May poll by the Cook Political Report found that Trump was beating Biden by an overall average of 3 percentage points and was leading or tied in all seven battleground states.
A poll released in May showed Senate Democrats leading Biden across the board in key benchmark states, surprising Democrats and overshadowing last month’s revolt against Biden.
The Cook Political Report’s latest poll surveyed 2,867 voters between July 26 and August 2. The survey was conducted by GS Strategy Group (a Republican pollster) and BSG (a Democratic pollster).
The Trump campaign predicted a dramatic shift in the polls after Ms. Harris surged to the top last month, and campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio argued that while she would have a “honeymoon” period, the dynamics of the race would not change much.
Last week, the Cook Political Report’s handicapper moved Arizona, Georgia and Nevada away from Trump, changing them from “Republican” to “close.”
