College basketball is back, and so is “CBB With Danny Z.” I’m genuinely excited for the season, though I know plenty of people don’t start paying attention until February—or March.
Last season, we compared the preseason AP Top 25 with KenPom’s ratings, then revisited the differences in December, January and March to see how they changed over time.
KenPom had some notable successes. It ranked Vanderbilt 19th before the season, while AP voters placed the Commodores around 36th. Vanderbilt went 27-9, earned a No. 5 seed and won an NCAA Tournament game. But the model also ranked Baylor 17th, and the Bears finished 17-17 without making the tournament.
St. John’s showed why it can be risky to declare a winner too early. The Red Storm opened 4-3 after being ranked fifth in the preseason AP poll, making KenPom’s No. 16 ranking look sensible at first. They then finished 30-7, reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 5 seed and lost to Duke by five points. By season’s end, the voters’ higher expectations didn’t look so unreasonable.
Creighton went the other way. AP voters placed the Bluejays 23rd before the season, while KenPom had them 41st. Creighton finished 16-18, missed the NCAA Tournament and played in the College Basketball Crown instead. Probably not the postseason its preseason supporters had pictured.
Those disagreements are worth tracking, so this season we’re adding two more perspectives: TeamRankings’ predictive ratings and the Coaches Poll. Before getting into the debate between people and computers, it makes sense to see how much the voters agree with one another—and whether the analytics models do.
The comparisons here use the preseason AP and Coaches polls, along with KenPom and TeamRankings ratings from the morning of November 1, before the season began.
At the top, there isn’t much to argue about. Both polls put Florida first and Duke second, while both analytics models flip those two spots. Illinois is third in each poll and fourth in both models. All four rankings are high on those three teams.
After that, the differences become more striking. Kansas is one of the biggest examples, and the surprising part is that the analytics models are more bullish than the voters.
The Jayhawks are 17th in the AP poll and tied for 18th in the Coaches Poll. KenPom ranks them fifth, while TeamRankings has them sixth. I would have expected voters to be especially high on a program with Kansas’s history. Seeing both models put the Jayhawks in the top six, with neither human poll placing them in the top 15, caught me off guard.
Iowa State is another major point of disagreement. The Cyclones were a No. 2 seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, but start this season 18th in the AP poll and tied for 14th with the coaches. KenPom ranks them sixth; TeamRankings has them 11th, still ahead of both polls but less optimistic than KenPom.
Their defense may help explain KenPom’s view. The model projects Iowa State to have the country’s second-best defensive unit.
Alabama also rates better with the models than with the voters. The Crimson Tide are 20th in the AP poll and tied for 18th in the Coaches Poll. KenPom puts them ninth, and TeamRankings has them 16th. KenPom projects Alabama to own the nation’s fourth-best offense.
Houston rounds out this group. The Cougars rank third in KenPom and seventh at TeamRankings, compared with 10th in the AP poll and eighth in the Coaches Poll. KenPom expects Houston to have the best defense in the country.
USC is a good example of why it helps to compare more than one kind of ranking. Voters put the Trojans in the preseason top 25—21st in the AP poll and 22nd with the coaches—but neither model has them in the top 35. KenPom ranks USC 37th, and TeamRankings places the Trojans 40th.
Tennessee offers another interesting split near the top of the polls. The Volunteers are eighth in the AP poll and ninth in the Coaches Poll, but the models are less convinced: KenPom ranks them 22nd, and TeamRankings has them 18th.
That’s a reversal from last preseason, when KenPom ranked Tennessee ninth and the AP poll had the Volunteers 18th. This time, the voters are the more optimistic group. Tennessee did reach the Elite Eight last season as a No. 6 seed before falling to top-seeded Michigan, which may help explain some of that confidence.
Arkansas is another team to keep an eye on. The Razorbacks are 12th in the AP poll and 13th with the coaches, while KenPom ranks them 19th and TeamRankings puts them 25th. Arkansas reached the Sweet 16 in 2026.
BYU is 25th in both human polls, but sits outside the top 25 in each model: 34th in KenPom and 30th at TeamRankings.
St. John’s is again ranked higher by the voters than by KenPom. The Red Storm are 13th in the AP poll and tied for 14th in the Coaches Poll, compared with 21st in KenPom and 17th at TeamRankings. The gap has narrowed since last preseason, when the AP placed them fifth and KenPom had them 16th, but the voters remain more enthusiastic.
Nebraska was one of the surprises in last year’s comparisons. The Huskers started outside KenPom’s top 50 and received no preseason votes in the AP poll, then climbed into the top 15 in both rankings by our March check-in.
This time, Nebraska has a much stronger starting position. KenPom ranks the Huskers 15th, and TeamRankings has them 22nd. The voters have them just outside their top 25s: effectively 27th in the AP poll and 26th in the Coaches Poll. Nebraska is coming off a 28-7 season and the first Sweet 16 appearance in program history.
Ohio State is another unranked team that KenPom likes, placing the Buckeyes 18th. TeamRankings is less convinced, ranking them 31st. That’s a useful reminder that “the analytics” don’t always speak with one voice.
Vanderbilt is familiar territory for anyone who followed last season’s comparisons. KenPom rated the Commodores more highly than the AP voters did, and that gap is back: Vanderbilt is 12th in KenPom, 24th in the AP poll and 21st in the Coaches Poll.
My sense is that voters put more emphasis on how a team finished the previous season. Vanderbilt didn’t get past the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and that may be part of why the polls are less enthusiastic than KenPom.
TeamRankings has the Commodores 24th, matching the AP poll. So KenPom is somewhat on its own in projecting a strong 2026-27 season for Vanderbilt.
UConn presents a different kind of split. The Huskies are fourth in the AP poll and fifth in the Coaches Poll, which is understandable after reaching last season’s national championship game and winning back-to-back titles in 2023 and 2024.
KenPom is more cautious, ranking Dan Hurley’s team 11th. At first glance, that looks like a case of voters backing a familiar powerhouse while the numbers anticipate a step back. But TeamRankings has UConn third, making that model more optimistic than either poll.
Louisville shows a smaller version of the same divide. Both polls rank the Cardinals 11th, between KenPom at 16th and TeamRankings at ninth.
We’ll return to these rankings as the season unfolds and see how the projections hold up. It will be interesting to find out which model does better, and whether the coaches or the media prove more accurate. I’m not sure there will be one clear answer, but that’s part of the appeal.
