Last month, during the holiday thickness, I realized that I was rare, but there was no completely unprecedented struggle.
In my December column, I told you that there were three possible 2025 results. All of them seemed to be possible and troublesome at first glance. Also, when I could conclude that it was actually the most likely, I told you that you would return to you.
Well, I'm back -with the answer that surprised me in one or more ways.
Remember the three possible results that I have an overview: minor decline, small amount of positive year, or another big year like the profit of 2023 and 2024. I also said that the latter was the most expected, and that it would be shocking if it was almost shocked for the third consecutive year for the third consecutive year.
Now, I dare to say -Brace for legendary rare things. I believe that it is probably the most likely to increase the number of stock markets from 15 % to 25 %.
But here I have a big twist that I am not expected, which may be more shocking. The twist should have a quiet and strong European strain, as my predictions above are for the MSCI World Index. S & P 500 should delay Europe.
What has changed from the end of the year? As I said, I shake the direction and continue my research for signs of emotions that swing will occur immediately.
He also said that US investors were optimistic and foreigners were pessimistic. After all, overseas pessimism is extreme. Americans are much more depressed than optimistic. Therefore, it will lead to a great positive surprise for them, even for foreign GDPs, especially for Europeans. They are more sensitive now.
Folds decades ago, behavioralists have proven that American investors hate more losses than loving the same size. MEIR STATMAN and me, my previous research partner, have developed the same methodology that indicates that the UK and German investors are even more smooth about the loss of 4-1 to 6 to 1, respectively.
Europeans are more risky than Americans. I knew it for a long time. It seems that few people remember.
Now, I have discovered how much more is now than usual, as the absolute Trump fears overwhelm Europeans. Surprisingly, it is almost beyond words. Since the US election, they have become very pessimistic. It's as if they were MSNBC commentators, and occasionally smiling and joking.
Therefore, European stocks are depressed, not so much, and there are most non -US markets. Therefore, in most cases,, of course, it wasn't, but I broke S & P quietly to 500 years. The United Kingdom, Germany, and Israel have actually reached the highest ever in 2025.
In combination, it means that profits and other measures are in a statistically inexpensive value, which is unique to the configuration of the United States and foreign stocks, that is, more expensive growing stocks.
But why am I “unique”? In the industrial sector, the United States and growth shares are intertwined. Almost all growth shares are American due to the weight -capital weight weight. High -tech and communication services are more than 40 % of S & P 500 and are almost not Europe.
Therefore, as clear that NASDAQ is delaying S & P 500, the value must be led, even if both a magnificent seven lag -like growth rises. Europe too! But this is more than just a sector. It is also a national emotion.
Do you doubt me? Okay, but it's happening in front of you. Grab the iPhone. Use the regular Apple News Stock Market app to find out S & P 500, NASDAQ COMPOSITE, and MSCI Europe. That's there. European lead.
If you look at certain European countries, you can see that it is widely expanded except for Denmark (most of the weaknesses). Otherwise, Europe is leading the S & P 500, which is leading Nasdak.
In the meantime, I add that I expect that the stocks in the emerging market will be delayed. They are mainly the categories that are expected to be delayed as utility and struggling products.
So, when you think about stocks this year, please cheer up your geography and pay attention. And Happy 2025.
Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, the best -selling writer of the New York Times, and a regular columnist in the world.
