The Cook Political Report, known for its electoral analysis, revised its assessment of the Kansas Senate race on Tuesday, changing it from leaning Republican to a “toss up.” This update coincided with Republican Senator Roger Marshall’s narrow lead of just 0.4% over Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton as of Sunday. Additionally, the Cook Political Report adjusted its outlook for the Senate races in North Carolina and New Hampshire, moving them in favor of Democrats.
Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since November 1932, when George McGill won reelection. He served until January 3, 1939, marking the last time a Democratic senator was in office from the state.
Currently, the Republican Party governs the offices of the attorney general, Secretary of State, and both chambers of the state Legislature, while the Democratic Party holds the governor’s office.
Today, The Cook Political Report is moving three Senate races, all towards Democrats. • Kansas from Lean R -> Toss Up • North Carolina from Lean D -> Likely D • New Hampshire from Toss Up -> Lean D Read @JessicaTaylor’s full analysis: https://t.co/V7wrojXhQB
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) October 6, 2026
Marshall faced backlash after a report revealed he sued 700 patients for unpaid medical bills during his tenure as an OB-GYN, which resulted in 81 arrests, as highlighted by The New York Times in September. The debts varied widely, from a few thousand dollars to as little as $101.
Marshall’s campaign did not provide feedback when contacted for comment.
Republican political action committees (PACs) have either reduced their spending or paused funds in battleground states like North Carolina and Georgia while focusing more on Kansas and other traditionally Republican states. The Senate Leadership Fund, which is the primary super PAC for the GOP, put $14 million into an advertising campaign starting the week of October 5 to bolster Marshall’s position while he maintains a slender edge in the polls.
In a curious twist, Democrats spent more on ads during the general election in Kansas, with expenditures of $8.2 million compared to the Republicans’ $7 million, according to AdImpact Politics.
The Senate campaign arm had halted financial support in North Carolina after investing $32 million in the race involving Republican Michael Whatley and former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper. Polls indicated Cooper ahead of Whatley by an average of nine points based on RealClearPolling data.
The Senate Leadership Fund also allocated $5 million to assist Republican Senator Darline Graham in South Carolina, as poll results suggested a potential loss to Democratic nominee Annie Andrews.
No Going Back PAC, linked to Donald Trump, scheduled no advertisements for North Carolina in the week of October 5 and planned to spend under $90,000 in Georgia, according to Punchbowl News. This PAC, along with MAGA Inc. and the Safety and Affordability PAC, collectively spent over $163 million on advertising since September 1, according to KARK, an NBC affiliate.
Old North Action, a super PAC supporting Whatley, has slashed its budget by $6.5 million for October, as reported by Semafor.
In Texas, Republicans were prepared to invest between $150 and $200 million to support Attorney General Ken Paxton’s campaign against Democratic nominee James Talarico, who’s been leading Paxton by 2.8 points according to RealClearPolling.
Looking at the broader picture, Democrats appeared to be in a strong position to regain control of the House and Senate. As of Tuesday, RealClearPolitics indicated that in a Generic Congressional Vote, Democrats held 50.6% while Republicans had 42.3%. Over half of registered voters, about 53%, indicated they would support Democrats if the election were held at this moment, while 41% favored Republicans, information from a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll from September 23 revealed. Independent voters also leaned heavily towards Democrats by a margin of 25 points.
Furthermore, on September 25, 15 significant House races also tilted toward the Democrats.
