In a special election on Tuesday, former Pima County superintendent Adelita Grijalva (D) and small business owner Daniel Butierrez (R) are competing to replace the late Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), who represented Arizona’s 7th Congressional District. Raul Grijalva passed away in March due to complications from cancer treatment, leaving his seat open. After winning the Democratic primary in July, Adelita is now looking to secure the position.
This election holds significance as it could influence the slim Republican majority in the House.
Another Grijalva Ready to Fill the Seat
Adelita Grijalva is predicted to win comfortably, likely finishing out her father’s term due to the district’s strong Democratic leanings. In fact, President Biden won the district by a notable 22 points in November, and the late Raul Grijalva previously held the seat by nearly 27 points against Butierrez last fall.
Aside from her familiar name, Adelita has established connections in the local community, which could give her an edge. It’s also worth noting that she has a considerable funding advantage over Butierrez. Between early July and early September, Grijalva raised $421,000, leaving her with about $108,000 in cash on hand. Meanwhile, Butierrez’s fundraising during the same timeframe amounted to $28,000, with around $60,000 left in the bank.
Do Democrats Perform Too Well?
A key question for Tuesday night revolves around Democratic performance. The party has been exceeding expectations in special elections this year, winning 33 out of 39 races according to data from Downballot. They’ve also seen success in state legislative elections, winning three additional seats.
Though the dynamics of state legislative and congressional special elections are different, this trend indicates a positive outlook for Democrats. Given this district’s Democratic lean, there’s concern that if it’s deemed uncompetitive, some voters might not turn out, which could be a worry for Democrats. Yet, they’re still outperforming even in their strongholds.
How the Race Might Affect House Dynamics
Currently, the Republicans hold a narrow 219-213 majority in the House. If Adelita wins, it would bring their number to 214, with her being sworn in as soon as Wednesday. This situation gives Republicans little room to spare, as they would need all members present for voting, particularly with potential government shutdowns on the horizon.
Congress must pass funding to keep the government operating until September 30. Republicans are under pressure to maintain their majority through future special elections; the next one will take place on December 2 to fill the seat of former Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.).
