The countdown to the Knicks’ most complicated contract extension eligibility begins this weekend.
Julius Randle, a former All-Star under Tom Thibodeau, can add up to four years and $181.5 million to his current contract starting Saturday.
While the Knicks are prioritizing retaining their core players in virtually every other respect, it will be difficult to give Randle an extension that suits him after five controversial seasons at MSG.
Randle is a three-time All-Star and deserves to be paid well after his huge success over the past four seasons.
Randle isn’t a top-tier star forward like Giannis Antetokounmpo or Jayson Tatum, but he’s weathered the ups and downs and established himself as a triple-threat No. 4 who can explode in the half-court and in transition defense.
With the Knicks, he averaged 22.6 points and 9.9 rebounds, won the New Emerging Player of the Year award and became the team’s first player since Carmelo Anthony to be named to two All-NBA teams.
By comparison, Pascal Siakam, a different but equally talented power forward, just signed a four-year, $189.5 million contract extension with the Pacers.
But there are several factors that could hold the Knicks back.
That includes Randle, who hasn’t played since January due to a dislocated shoulder.
He underwent surgery in April and recently said he expects to be ready for the start of next season, but without evidence of his play after the surgery, a big contract extension carries risks.
And while Randle has been very productive during the regular season, he has not been able to carry that performance into the playoffs.
He is averaging 17.1 points and shooting just 34 percent from the field in 15 postseason games.
There have been recurring concerns for some time about whether Randle will fit in with Jalen Brunson as a two-man ball-dominant duo.
The contract extension makes him ineligible for trades for six months after signing the deal.
The best evidence that Randle was healthy was a January when he and OG Anunoby were healthy as starting forwards and along with Brunson, the team had its best month since the ’90s.
But no matter how much stock you put in in January, the math on an extension is difficult.
If Randle signs the max deal, he would be making $25 million more than the team’s Most Valuable Player, Brunson, recently signed.
With Anunoby’s huge contract now written into law, the Knicks would face a dreaded second tax liability in 2025-26 when Randle’s theoretical extension takes effect.
This is not a comfortable cap situation for a team that will likely need further upgrades to beat the Celtics.
Hitting the second apron means restrictions on trades, contracts and even draft picks.
It’s become a scary place for the NBA.
For Randle, there are benefits to forgoing a contract extension.
If he performs well this season, the 29-year-old could decline his player option next summer and become a free agent in 2025 with a chance at a veteran max contract worth more than $300 million over five years.
Alternatively, Randle could opt to play the final season of his current contract and earn $30 million in the 2025-26 season before becoming a free agent in 2026.
They’re certainly not bad options.
But when Randle signed a contract extension in 2021 instead of waiting a year for free agency, it wasn’t a bet on himself.
At the time, the Knicks were content to offer Randle a maximum contract extension.
This time? It’s difficult.
This isn’t the same as Brunson, who was named to the All-NBA Second Team and almost certainly would have made a lot more in free agency a year later.
The Knicks made him their maximum offer and were ecstatic that he accepted.
This isn’t the same as Anunoby, who was a free agent and had offers from other teams, and needed $200 million or more to stay with the team.
This isn’t the same as Thibodeau, who recently signed a contract extension with no impact on cap space or the apron.
As for Randle, who switched his agent back to CAA last season, even bigger questions arise when his contract extension eligibility begins Saturday.
“I’ve said it all along, I want to come to New York and add to what the guys did in the playoffs. I think that was my personal goal, or in some ways the team goal. My biggest goal when I got here was to build the team, compete and get to the point where it’s actually a possibility now,” he said. [to win a championship].
“So, really, that’s my focus. Doing whatever I can to get healthy and come back and be ready to go and help win whenever the games start up again. That’s my whole focus. It’s just always just worked itself out in my career.”
