Proper investigation and analysis of data fantasy football Lineup.
Is your running back a competent runner and how does he play against the run defense he faces?
Are your wide receivers more effective in man coverage or zone? And what kind of defensive coverage packages do opponents typically run?
Having this knowledge is important, whether you conduct your own research or use a subscription-based website to help you interpret your data.
However, each week we continue to see fantasy managers incorrectly evaluate their teams and decide on lineups based solely on the host website's projections.
Some might call it lazy analysis, but should we call it analysis? Probably not.
To pull back the curtain to reveal the wizard, the site's projection is flawed.
Each site has its own algorithm that calculates predictions based on statistical data taken from a player's past numbers, recent performances, and defensive statistics posted by opponents.
Unfortunately, that data doesn't take into account injuries sustained during games, lack of historical data for rookies, coaching or scheme changes, etc.
For example, one site has Dallas wide receiver CeeDee Lamb projected to score 16.2 fantasy points against Washington in Week 12.
This prediction was clearly calculated based on the Rams' history against Washington and what the manager allowed to the opponent's No. 1 wideout in the game.
What they don't include is Lamb's lack of production with Cooper Rush under center.
In fact, Lamb has only averaged 13.7 fantasy points in full-point PPR format over the past three games and has missed practice in back issues.
Another website projected Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt to score just 3.26 fantasy points against the Panthers, a team with the league's worst run defense.
Why was he projected for so few points? That's because the site included Isaiah Pacheco in its calculations, which significantly reduced Hunt's projected carries.
Was that accurate? Absolutely not.
Pacheco was ruled out on Friday, making Hunt the starting running back.
What happens if he is not activated? Those who benched Hunt based on the site's predictions will no doubt suffer.
Do you want to bet on the NFL?
This is not an attempt to beat the website's predictions. This is simply a warning against basing lineup decisions on those numbers.
Don't think you should only use players with high upside just because your site predicts you'll lose.
Understand where these numbers come from and always question the data.
Winning a fantasy football game is not as simple as picking the players with the highest predictive power.
Howard Bender is responsible for the following content. fantasyalarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy Catch him on the award-winning SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Channel on the “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Fantasy football news and advice.
