Week two of the college football season brought its usual level of unpredictability, dramatically shifting the landscape of the College Football Playoff. Numerous surprising outcomes intensified the stakes.
The Oregon Ducks, who were anticipated to be serious contenders for the Big Ten Championship alongside the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers, found themselves in a tough spot. They barely pulled off a win against Boise State before suffering a defeat at the hands of Oklahoma State. In a related twist, the Oklahoma Sooners faltered on the road against Michigan, managing to score only 10 points.
Meanwhile, the Wolverines—who seemed to be on their last legs after a questionable win over Western Michigan in the previous week—made a comeback by defeating a strong SEC team, landing themselves back in playoff discussions. Adding to the drama, the Texas Longhorns secured a crucial victory against Ohio State, giving their playoff credentials a significant boost and improving their odds for an at-large bid if the need arises.
This week’s AP Top 25 Poll is quite the reflection of the chaos so far, highlighting the shortcomings of the notion that some wins carry more weight than certain losses, a sentiment echoed by figures like Nick Saban.
Here’s a look at this week’s rankings and what they signify for the season ahead:
- Texas Longhorns
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Indiana Hoosiers
- Miami Hurricanes
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- LSU Tigers
- Ole Miss Rebels
- Texas A&M Aggies
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- BYU Cougars
- USC Trojans
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Penn State Nittany Lions
- Tennessee Volunteers
- SMU Mustangs
- Utah Utes
- Iowa Hawkeyes
- Michigan Wolverines
- Missouri Tigers
- Oregon Ducks
- Houston Cougars
- Louisville Cardinals
- Oklahoma Sooners
- Virginia Cavaliers
One clear takeaway? No matter the theories fans, coaches, or analysts put forth, winning and losing remain paramount. This is especially true when “strength of schedule” is considered.
Oklahoma slid down 13 spots following their loss to Michigan, failing to receive acknowledgment for scheduling what could be seen as a top-20 opponent in their home-and-home series. In contrast, BYU surged up four spots after a solid 28-17 win over Arizona.
Additionally, Indiana climbed the rankings after overpowering Howard, and Miami rose as well, thanks to a blowout 77-7 victory over Florida A&M. The reason for their ascension? Ohio State dropped five spots after a narrow loss to Texas, despite having held a 20-point lead at one point in that game.
That’s the tough part. Ohio State made an effort to schedule a top-tier opponent, showing the intentions everyone claims to want. They lost on the field but, statistically speaking, the game was incredibly close. ESPN’s metrics painted it as virtually even, with Texas enjoying a slight edge in win expectancy at 50.2% compared to Ohio State’s 49.8%. Remarkably, the adjusted scoring margin was a standstill at zero.
And yet, what was their reward? A drop in the rankings behind teams that played much lesser competition. In this curious evaluation structure, Ohio State should not have fallen below second place. They went up against the top team in the nation and came alarmingly close to coming out on top. The fall in their ranking implies a peculiar disconnect between performance and perception.
People, no matter their stated intentions, will naturally judge based on outcomes. That’s simply human nature. Hence, the rankings shift, and seemingly lesser competitions receive accolades.
In the grand scheme, this week’s AP Poll won’t have a lasting impact, but it certainly reflects the mindset of the playoff selection committee moving forward. It’s not only about wins and losses; how you perform against your competition carries weight too.
As for Oregon, they still have the talent and schedule to claw their way back into contention. However, their room for error has shrunk. After facing Portland State, they will head to USC and still have formidable matchups against Ohio State, Michigan, and Washington later in the season. The Ducks really need to kick it into high gear to avoid falling out of the top 25 by the end of September.
