Thousands gathered on Sunday night to protest the results of the first round of France’s parliamentary elections, demonstrating that French people voted in greater numbers for Le Pen’s populist bloc than for a pan-left coalition.
Results of the first round of parliamentary elections across France began trickling in overnight, largely confirming exit polls released Sunday night and opinion polls in the days leading up to the election. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) recorded the highest turnout in a French election in decades, coming in first with 33.15% of the vote. The New Popular Front, a pan-left coalition formed for the election, came in third with 27.99%, while President Emmanuel Macron’s globalist, managerialist faction came in third with just 20.76%.
PARIS, FRANCE – JUNE 30: Demonstrators gather at Place de la Republique to protest against the rise of the right-wing movement following the National Rally victory in the first round of the general elections in Paris, France, on June 30, 2024. (Photo by Luc Auffret/Anadolu via Getty Images)
PARIS, FRANCE – JUNE 30, 2024: Firefighters fight to put out a fire after protesters set off fireworks at police and set several fires in Paris, France, on June 30. Demonstrators gathered at Place de la Republique to protest the rise of the right-wing movement following the National Rally victory in the first round of early general elections. (Photo by Luc Auffret/Anadolu via Getty Images)
French people may have voiced their opinion at the ballot box, but it’s clear that the result has left some people very upset. Protests erupted overnight in several French cities, with thousands gathering in Paris in particular. The New Popular Front, which represents a broad swath of left-wing parties ranging from pro-EU centrists to full-blooded communists, has previously threatened to “resist” the results if the New Popular Front wins, and the protests may be the first step in that. However, given that there is a week until the second round of voting actually allocates a majority of seats and determines whether Le Pen’s New Popular Front will be able to secure a majority in the lower house, further violence is expected next week.
Le Soir Note The Monument to the Republic in central Paris, a huge limestone and bronze statue extolling the virtues of the nation and featuring a giant lion guarding the ballot boxes, was covered in graffiti as anti-right-wing protesters climbed the stone to hang banners. The paper also reported that police and protesters clashed in Lyon, where one protester detonated an explosive device at a branch of the American fast-food chain McDonald’s, and that missiles were exchanged between protesters and police in Nantes.
TF1 Police citations He said 800 people took part in the “anti-far-right” protest, which turned out to be a “hostile group of people wearing hoods and masks.” [which] They tried to enter Lyon’s 1st arrondissement city hall but were blocked by police.
PARIS, FRANCE – JUNE 30: Demonstrators gather at Place de la Republique to protest against the rise of right-wing movements following the National Rally victory in the first round of the general elections in Paris, France, on June 30, 2024. (Photo by Luc Auffret/Anadolu via Getty Images)
PARIS, FRANCE – JUNE 30, 2024: Demonstrators gather at Republic Square to protest against the rise of right-wing movements following the victory of the National Rally in the first round of the general elections in Paris, France. (Photo by Mohammad Salaheldin Abdelg Al-Sayed/Anadolu via Getty Images)
What will happen in this week’s election?
When the Fifth Republic was established in 1958 by General Charles de Gaulle to replace the Fourth Republic, it was intended to remedy the shortcomings of its predecessor, such as significantly strengthening the powers of the president at the expense of the parliament and introducing a voting system that strongly favoured centrist and non-controversial parties. This was achieved by having two rounds of voting, first a knockout round and then a runoff round in which only the best performers competed for seats.
With a limited number of seats, a truly popular candidate can garner enough votes in the first round to beat all the other candidates and avoid having to go to the second round. The RN is fielding 38 candidates in the 577-seat parliament, including its leader, Marine Le Pen, so she won’t have to personally fight the election this week. She’ll be free to work around the country in support of her colleagues over the next six days, likely involving long helicopter rides.
The reality of this system means that everyone has the opportunity to vote with their heart for the party they truly support in round one, and with their head for the lesser of two evils in round two. For Marine Le Pen’s RN, clearly the most popular party in France at the moment but with no political friends, this means that in every constituency where they want to clinch first place and seal their victory this Sunday, they will face off against voters in the next constituency. All other parties Work together to keep them out.
This means there will be intense negotiations and maneuvering between France’s various parties early this week, as they decide who to tell voters to support instead of their own on Sunday, and also which constituencies to strategically withdraw from to give their allies a clearer position to exclude the RN. Many notable developments are expected before the next ballot papers are printed.
Macron’s predicted early elections could see him lose, while Le Pen could make a big advance and win a majority https://t.co/Leh5dULCOr
—Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) June 30, 2024
What about the right-wing coalition?
While it is technically possible for the RN to really flex their muscles in Parliament next week and win a majority – essential if they want to put their front-runner, Jordan Bardella, as prime minister to challenge or even defeat Macron – only if they perform at their best and win. Current opinion polls suggest it is more likely that the RN will miss out on a majority by just a few seats. So is a right-wing coalition like the one the left formed before the vote possible?
A pact between the RN and the traditionally conservative Republicans (LR) would seem the most obvious answer, but the party nearly collapsed when its leader suggested just that early in the election, in a bitter battle between pragmatists who wanted to oust Macron and purists who wanted to preserve their traditions by not aligning with Le Pen, who is deeply unpopular with the French dinner party crowd.
As it stands, LR performed predictably badly on Sunday, but if they can put egos aside they might be able to make some local deals, especially in hotly contested areas. But don’t get your hopes up too much: the decades-old European elite attitude of putting up a “corridor” around right-wing populists is hard to shake.
Realistically, there is no other party the RN can turn to: Eric Zemmour’s Reconquista party got a lot of headlines but performed pretty badly, with less than 1% support.
‘When a police officer dies, Le Pen loses votes’: Violent far-left rhetoric abounds as French elections loom https://t.co/M4e8viOLNO
—Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) June 29, 2024
What’s next for Macron?
Oops! Looks like his gamble didn’t work. There’s a flurry of opinions on social media that this is actually a long game of 4D chess by Macron – to give the right a taste of power, let voters watch them ruin it in real time, and then swoop in with new elections when public opinion turns against them. Of course, this theory presupposes that Le Pen’s RN is as incompetent/evil as the left imagines it to be. This theory first emerged when Macron called elections in early June after his massive defeat to the RN in the European Parliament elections and people were looking for plausible answers, and it surfaced again last night.
France limits presidents to two terms, meaning Macron’s term runs until 2027. Given that Macron has called term limits “a monstrous piece of bullshit” in the past and is keen to reform the French state, you can imagine he would try to repeal the law if he were actually in charge of French politics today — after all, the law was only introduced in 2008 and is not an ironclad part of the country’s founding constitution.
Leaving aside the idea that Macron is a master of 4D chess, the impression remains that what really matters to him now is legacy management, and that he doesn’t want to spend his remaining three years as a “lame duck” at the Elysée Palace. This is made clear by his calling new national elections so soon after his big Euro defeat. A major French newspaper cites insiders saying that Macron’s camp is already planning to call yet another round of elections next year after this one, as soon as it is legally permitted – another roll of the dice.
Meanwhile, the French have to bear it with a wry smile.
France will hold another election on Sunday the 7th, and the composition of the next French parliament is likely to be known by early Monday morning.
Le Pen says she would stop Macron from sending French troops to Ukraine if elected https://t.co/qm7N8EnxTM
—Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) June 28, 2024
