The political situation in Lebanon has undergone a dramatic change with the election of Joseph Aoun as president. After more than two years of political deadlock, Lebanon's parliament on Thursday elected a military commander with 99 votes out of 128.
Aoun's election is a significant achievement for the anti-Hezbollah camp and reflects the weakening influence of the powerful Shiite terrorist organization within Lebanon's political system. Nevertheless, experts say Hezbollah remains a formidable force in the country and the challenges Aoun faces in balancing Lebanon's domestic politics and foreign relations remain immense. There is.
For much of the past two years, Hezbollah has worked tirelessly to block any moves to elect a new president. The group strongly opposed Aoun's candidacy. However, as the political situation evolved and Assad's ouster from Syria unfolded, Hezbollah was eventually forced to accept Aoun, who secured the presidency.
“Hezbollah has been opposing his election for the past two and a half years, and all the while blocking every process to elect the president. “They're getting weaker and their influence isn't what it used to be,” Paul Salem, deputy director for international engagement at the Middle East Institute, told FOX News Digital.
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Newly elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun inspects the guard of honor as he arrives at the Lebanese parliament to be sworn in as the new president in Beirut, Thursday, January 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Hussein Mara)
Salem points to broader changes in regional politics, particularly the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, which has left Hezbollah increasingly isolated. “They are now not only cut off from Iran, but also isolated in the region. They are the only Shiite community between here and Basra, once dominated by friendly Alawites. “Sunnis took over Damascus, which had been in the Islamic Republic for some time,” he added.
The United States and Israel, along with other Western and Arab countries, have long sought to distance Lebanon from Hezbollah's influence, and Aoun's selection could be a step in that direction.
Aoun, a Maronite Christian and head of the Lebanese army, took office with a strong message focused on Lebanese sovereignty. In his inaugural address, he emphasized the need for the state to have a monopoly on the use of force.
David Schenker, who served as director of the US State Department's Bureau of Near East Affairs during the first Trump administration, said Aoun's speech was a positive and pragmatic step for Lebanon. “He talked about disarming all groups and putting their weapons under control,” Schenker said. “This was a good move as it shows a commitment to sovereignty and the rule of law.”
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But Mr. Schenker, now the Taub Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics, said Mr. Aoun's position as president gives him absolute power in Lebanon's political system. I warned him that I wouldn't give it to him. “The president is not the most powerful position in Lebanon. The key position will be the prime minister. It remains to be seen whether Mr. Aoun will show the same courage in his new role as he showed as chief of staff.” Schenker pointed out.
Although Hezbollah has been weakened militarily by recent Israeli operations and the assassination of leader Hassan Nasrallah, among other key leaders, it remains highly influential, especially in southern Lebanon. However, Schenker said the organization's ability to intimidate Lebanese citizens has diminished. “Hezbollah is not the force it once was. It can still restart its killing machine if necessary, but it no longer has the control it used to have,” he said.
“Hezbollah calculates that it has lost the battle with Israel and then lost the battle in Syria. Therefore, their interest now is to be modest and establish a president and government that is acceptable to the United States and the region. At the end of the day, they want to protect themselves from further Israeli aggression and help their people,” Salem explained. “A functioning government is needed to secure international aid for the millions of people displaced by their actions in southern Lebanon. It is important for them not only to survive politically but also economically. It depends.”
On August 1, 2024, Hezbollah terrorists form a human barrier during the funeral procession for slain Hezbollah commander-in-chief Fuad Shukr in the southern suburbs of Beirut. (Photo by KHALED DESOUKI/AFP via Getty Images)
Aoun's selection is important not only for Hezbollah's position in Lebanon, but also for its relations with outside powers such as the United States and Israel. Lebanon is facing economic collapse, with the currency depreciating by more than 99% and nearly 80% of the population living below the poverty line. Hezbollah's previous resistance to international pressure now appears unsustainable.
The United States has long supported the Lebanese army and is expected to strengthen ties with Aoun, given his role in the military and his advocacy for sovereignty. Schenker said Lebanon's future collaboration with regional allies such as the United States and Saudi Arabia could provide the country with much-needed international support.
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Lebanon's newly elected President Joseph Aoun stands at the top and applauds Lebanese ministers as they make their first speech to parliament since taking office in Beirut on Thursday, January 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Hussein Mara)
“The U.S. military has been close to the Lebanese military for many years,” Salem told FOX News Digital. “That was the strongest link between the United States and Lebanon. So to bring a military leader to power, he is a well-known figure in Washington. He is known to the military and now This realignment will put Lebanon on a more natural path to cooperation with the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other regional allies.''
Israel will also be closely monitoring Aoun's inauguration as president. Schenker said Aoun's commitment to UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of southern Lebanon, could lead to a more cooperative Lebanese stance toward Israel. “Israel will be invested in Lebanon's implementation of 1701,” Schenker said. “Aoun's position will have an impact on Israel's position on Lebanon, as the Trump administration has made clear its desire to end the war in the region.”
