The Constitution isn’t a suicide pact, and Donald Trump isn’t one either. After Tuesday’s electoral rout, conservatives have a choice: stick with him through 2028, or break away and rebuild a movement that can win power—and do something with it.
Tuesday’s election felt like a contest between Bolsheviks and Mensheviks. The Bolsheviks won. So when do conservatives get to run under their own banner? When do we get a real chance? We won’t get one by staying on the same treadmill and insisting it’s progress.
Voters made clear what the status quo can cost. There’s little to gain by pretending it’s working.
Which conservative cause, exactly, lost on Tuesday? Voters in states that strongly supported Trump in 2024 didn’t suddenly turn to the left. They rejected Trump and a Republican Party that looked corporate, corrupt, directionless, and hypocritical. Democrats even adopted some issues conservatives like me have been talking about for the past two years.
The damage was broad: Democrats won Senate races in Texas, Kansas, South Carolina, and Ohio, took the Texas governorship, and made gains in places Republicans had considered safe. They captured the Senate and picked up at least 31 House seats. It will take time to understand the full down-ballot fallout, but the much-promised partisan realignment has plainly come apart.
People will reach for explanations that suit their preferred issue. The economy, the Iran war, tariffs, weak candidates, or the usual midterm backlash will all get blamed. Much of the conservative influencer world will twist itself into knots to avoid saying Trump’s name.
But it was all of those things, tied together by a Marie Antoinette-style presidency. People worried about paying the bills heard a president brag about a “golden economy,” stock portfolios, and a ballroom. The message, more or less: let them eat capital gains.
There were tariffs. There was a war with Iran, launched with great fanfare and left without a persuasive explanation of what victory would look like. Then came the aimless legislative agenda, talk of Greenland, the self-regard, the courtship of Big Tech, and enthusiasm for data centers and a surveillance state. Add the steady stream of family business interests and questions about conflicts of interest.
That’s a long way from Trump’s 2016 message. Back then, he spoke to people who thought their country had been sold to the highest bidder. Now the White House seems surprised that those same people aren’t celebrating every new deal with powerful interests.
Some good things have been done, of course. Border enforcement and other executive actions deserve credit, and Trump can’t be blamed for every Republican loss. Still, too many achievements remain at risk because the administration hasn’t secured durable legislative wins. And it’s hard to imagine a new conservative movement taking shape while one man controls its message, candidates, strategy, and even its sense of possibility.
The party has turned into a personality cult with a fundraising arm. Trump backs one uninspiring candidate after another, and the rest of the right is expected to cheer. Question the choice and you’re accused of betraying the cause. But what cause are we talking about?
Tuesday also challenged the idea that conservative principles can’t win elections. Florida voters approved a property-tax amendment backed by Ron DeSantis with roughly 62% support, even as Republicans elsewhere took heavy losses. Voters in ten states also considered 41 local measures related to data centers; 28 of them would limit development. These disputes reflect real frustration with political favoritism and corporate power that seems to face few checks.
Florida, despite its close margins, at least kept its Republican governor. DeSantis has a recognizable record, clear priorities, and an agenda he spent years putting into practice. He didn’t build that record by chasing every new distraction. Florida produced a statewide Republican wave in 2022. This year, it was a rare bright spot.
Instead of taking that contrast seriously, Republican voters and the Conservatism Inc. influencer class may spend the next two years defending whatever Trump says, explaining away each failure, and finding fresh reasons to attack anyone who asks for results.
Here’s the question conservatives have to face: How do we rebuild for 2028 while Trump remains the dominant figure on the right for another 26 months? How do we recruit candidates with their own convictions when he insists on choosing his favorites? And how can anyone make the case for serious governing when a new distraction arrives every day?
We can’t spend the next two years defending corruption allegations, praising a “golden economy” that voters don’t recognize, and making excuses for policies that help special interests. Trump will remain the most visible Republican in the country. No amount of spin will change that—and he’ll make sure people remember it. The rest of the party has to decide whether it still has a voice of its own.
How much longer can conservatives remain trapped in the worn-out body of the old party? Tuesday showed the price of standing still. There’s not much to gain from pretending otherwise.
