Challenges Ahead for Lincoln Riley and the USC Trojans

Lincoln Riley’s time as head coach of the USC Trojans has had its share of ups and downs. When he started ahead of the 2022 season, there were lofty expectations for him to revive the team. His previous success with the Oklahoma Sooners, where he recorded a 55-10 overall record and led them to several significant bowl games, only added to the anticipation.

Last season, injuries—especially to key player Caleb Williams—derailed their chances at winning the Pac-12 Championship and entering the playoffs. Yet, as we glance ahead to 2026, there’s a palpable sense that this year might be pivotal for Riley.

The athletic department at USC, under the guidance of general manager Chad Bowden, is finally gaining traction. The NIL program has been beneficial, helping them secure the number one recruiting class in the country. Still, the demands of their schedule are daunting, and there’s an urgency in the air.

Interestingly, Riley seems more assured than ever before.

“It’s May today, right? And once you hit May, you can definitely feel a shift. It’s not just hopeful thinking,” Riley remarked during a recent Big Ten conference. He expressed confidence in the progress the program has made, noting their strides in talent acquisition and overall roster development. “I’ve seen the changes both on and off the field.”

He added, “I’m a far better coach now than I was even during my best days at Oklahoma. There’s so much I wish I had known back then.”

While he averaged around 11 wins a season at Oklahoma—something he hasn’t yet achieved at USC—Riley believes they’re on the verge of a breakthrough. He feels they were “close” last season and insists that if a few critical moments had gone differently, the playoffs would have been within reach.

“Last year gave me a glimpse of what’s possible,” he commented. “We know we’ve made significant progress. It’s time to capitalize on that.” Some fans may remember a game against Illinois, where they led late but fell short, or a missed opportunity against Notre Dame. Such moments raise questions about their ability to seize critical chances against top-tier teams, especially after also losing to Oregon in Eugene.

Many USC supporters attribute some of these losses to Riley’s decision-making, particularly a risky trick play that backfired in the Notre Dame game.

Looking ahead, this season’s schedule does not include Notre Dame, but it’s still formidable. They’ll face teams like Indiana State, Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon State, and Washington State—all challenging matches. Plus, a rivalry game against a new UCLA coach, and an away game at Wisconsin adds to the mix.

Even if they secure nine wins, that might be deemed a “successful” season. However, for Riley to truly develop as a head coach, a ten-win season and playoff appearance will likely be necessary, or the scrutiny of his performance may only intensify.