Long Island's congressional race, considered the state's closest, is a fierce battle between local Democrats and Republicans seeking a winning message that could have ramifications well beyond November.
The reelection race between first-term Republican Anthony D'Esposito and Democrat Laura Guillen is a chance for Democrats to regain momentum on the island after three crushing losses, while Republicans are looking for a win that will prove the region is steadily leaning Republican.
Democrats, who have been hurt in the area in recent years by backlash against liberal criminal justice reforms in the state Legislature, are hoping they can defeat Guillen in this election, just two years after he beat D'Esposito by more than 10,000 votes in the 4th District.
In the rematch, D'Esposito holds a six-point lead in the district bordering New York City, 48% to 42%, according to an internal election poll conducted by McLaughlin Associates in mid-August.
“Laura Guillen has been rejected twice and will be rejected a third time,” D'Esposito said of her opponent, who became the first Democrat to hold the seat in a century but lost reelection in 2019.
Guillen said he was campaigning as a pro-safety “independent” Democrat who denounces state laws that prohibit judges from setting bail for many crimes, and said he supports increased border security.
“The border needs to be closed. [D’Esposito] “I couldn't get this done,” she said.
The congressman said he supports the policy of deporting immigrants who enter the country illegally, especially those who have committed crimes, and blasted Guillen for his support of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, calling them “the two people who have caused disaster at the border.”
Gillen has pursued a strategy similar to other Democrats this year, saying she would defend abortion rights in the first election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, and she has criticized her opponent for shifting positions on the issue.
“I've always been an advocate for reproductive rights,” she said.
“I would never support a nationwide abortion ban. I never have, and I never will,” D'Esposito countered.
He supports in vitro fertilization and called Guillen's pro-abortion efforts “her entire campaign.”
The 4th District includes parts of Nassau County on the Queens border, including Hempstead, Valley Stream, Uniondale and Freeport. Approximately 40% of the district's voters are registered as Democrats, 30% are registered as Republicans and 30% are registered as independents.
The analysis found that Jewish residents make up 20 percent of the electorate, and the numbers of Orthodox Jewish residents are also growing in the five Republican-voting towns.
As the presidential election becomes a front-runner, some insiders say Democratic candidate Harris could be a “wild card” if she can garner strong support from the district's significant number of black residents to challenge Republican candidate Donald Trump.
D'Esposito's internal polling found Trump and Harris tied at 46% support, while independent Robert Kennedy Jr., who has since dropped out, was at 5%.
President Biden beat Trump in the district 55% to 45% in 2020, but an internal campaign poll in June showed him trailing Trump by 7 points. Polls show Harris has narrowed that gap since Biden dropped out of the race.
