Mad about the economy? Blame Donald Trump. 

Despite all evidence to the contrary, most voters in battleground states Former President Donald Trump It will do more for the economy than a second term for President Biden.

a New poll Trump was ahead in every battleground state except Wisconsin (where Trump and Biden were tied), with 56% of voters saying the former president would do a good job on the economy compared to just 40% for Biden.

These voters are sadly mistaken. President Trump’s first term and current policy proposals are a stark warning that a second round of Trumponomics would be devastating for ordinary Americans.

Trump Substantial tax cuts He would provide benefits for everyone and protect Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, but the truth is that his proposed tax cuts would benefit the wealthy at the expense of low- and middle-income Americans, and he would cut benefits to make up for the lost tax revenue.

We’ve seen this movie before: In 2016, Trump promised to cut taxes. favor working-class and middle-class AmericansBut the cuts he implemented favored the wealthy. Widening income gapand large-scale Tax fraud (Though Trump may view this as normal practice, His own fake tax deductions).

When President Trump’s tax cuts expire next year, Boost The top 1% of earners would see an increase in after-tax income of 3%, to an average of $2.1 million, but the bottom 60% would see little impact, with their income increasing just 1% to $41,800 in 2025.

By 2025, the average tax savings would be just $70 for the bottom 20% of earners, $61,090 for the top 1% and $252,300 for the top 0.1%. If the tax cuts were extended through 2027, low- and middle-income earners would see a Deteriorate.

Trump’s tax cuts Pay yourself By generating strong economic growth, $1 trillion to $2 trillion to the federal debt.

Republican leaders have used this argument to blame Democrats for too much debt. Medicare, Medicaid and social securityTrump himself has previously expressed a willingness to cut benefits. Retract comment And he promised to protect them. But unlike the party’s elites, most of the Republican electorate actually I want to expand.

Increased entitlement spending is not our real fiscal problem. In fact, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has significantly reduced that spending. Projected increase in medical expensesOur deficit is mainly This will be in addition to President Trump’s tax cuts. $4.6 trillion The CBO found an impact on the federal debt.

Instead of facing up to that reality, the Republican Study Committee, which represents a majority of Republican lawmakers, Continue to propose Massive cuts to Social Security. That’s why Trump Oath Even if Trump claims he will “never hurt benefits” or that extending tax cuts will benefit the vast majority of Americans and cover his own costs, voters would be unwise to believe him.

So too has Trump’s argument about tariffs: He’s threatening to impose new tariffs. At least 10% of $3 trillion in goods We import it every year. Assert The exporting country will pay this, but in reality American Consumers and Businesses Who will pay?

A 10% tariff would cost the average American household $1,500 per year Companies raise prices and absorb them. This leads to further inflation, It would hit working families hardest by further raising the costs of basic necessities like food, housing and health care, and it would put American jobs at risk by making American businesses less competitive.

For example, President Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum: Rising costs Chinese suppliers are a big challenge for U.S. manufacturers Reduce exports to the USWhen China began importing soybeans from the EU to avoid tariffs, Argentina, Brazil, RussiaUS soybean exports Over $10 billionChina has also retaliated against President Trump’s trade war. Lowering tariffs on other trading partners To attract imports from the United States

Donald Trump has abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a proposed trade agreement between 12 Pacific Rim economies, including the United States (but not, crucially, China). The TPP would have eliminated 18,000 tariffs on U.S. exports, including all kinds of U.S.-made products and most agricultural products. Enhancing labor and environmental standards We will strengthen regulations on Asian state-owned enterprises and create a level playing field with U.S. companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. 98 percent of U.S. exporters And it will employ millions of American workers.

Withdrawal from the agreement would make Asian imports more expensive for Americans, hinder exports to Southeast Asia, hit Americans’ wallets, and drive up average American incomes. $131 billion Until 2030.

By abandoning the TPP, Trump is handing the reins to China, who will then step in and Replaced The United States has signed China-led trade deals with 15 Asia-Pacific countries to boost trade among them and expand access to China’s vast market, giving Washington less incentive to persuade others to adopt U.S. trade rules.

Such unfair tax and trade policies will likely lead to a recession, and under Trump, it could lead to a recession. Wide-ranging tariffs It deepened the Great Depression. But in the 1920s the United States was a major creditor nation with the flexibility to borrow, provide liquidity, and stimulate the economy. Today, Republican tax cuts have driven the U.S. debt to 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars. 116 percent of GDPIt hampers our ability to get out of the crisis.

Unlike Presidents Bush and Obama, who appointed highly competent leaders to manage the recovery from the 2008 recession, Trump will eschew followers or people who don’t have the guts to oppose him. Instead, he will hire backers who will find ways to lead through the new crisis and profit from it while the rest of the country suffers. The people who will be hit hardest are low- and middle-income Americans who haven’t shared in the wealth that Trump’s tax cuts have brought to the elites.

Neil Baron is an attorney who has represented numerous institutions involved in international markets and advised federal government agencies on economic matters.