Australia faces a more unstable and dangerous world than has been known for over 40 years, and “large conflicts are no longer unimaginable,” a review from the country's intelligence reporting agency found.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese I've requested a review Of the work of the 10 institutions that make up the Australian national intelligence community in September 2023.
The report was handed over to the government in mid-2024 before the US election in November, with changes to management in Washington in January. But a Declassified Copy of Review He was not released by the government until Friday morning.
Even before the change in government in the US, it warned of the instability caused by the growing competition between China and the US. “It is proven that it is impossible to even manage peacefully, and difficult conflicts of interest and value have even been proven to be managed peacefully” was augmented by the “loose mass of dictatorship” that undermined the security of the world.
“The post-Cold War orders have collapsed,” says the 2024 Independent Information Review.
“It is not yet clear what will replace it, but foreseeable future Australia faces a world shaped by a competition between nation-states and the geopolitical and economic fragmentation of the world.”
The review stated that “major local conflicts” are unlikely to be an assessment, but that it is “no longer possible.” He said that coercion, disinformation and propaganda are used on a daily basis throughout the Indo-Pacific region.
“The world Australia is seeking security and prosperity is more contested, fragmented and unstable.
“The biggest conflicts are no longer unimaginable. New security threats are prominent, and many are amplified by technological changes.”
The author of the report, Dr. Heather Smith, former assistant director of the National Assessment Bureau, professor at the National Security College of Australia and former director of the National Assessment Bureau of Asia, Richard Maud, argued that three factors are most important to the Australian intelligence reporting community.
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There was a change in the relative global balance of power, accompanied by a sharp contest between nation-states for power and influence. The contest is diplomatic, military, economic and technical at one time, and is pursued beyond them within Australian borders, including cyberattacks and foreign interference.
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New technologies are being used to amplify some old threats while creating whole new threats.
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There are a variety of transnational challenges, including climate change, pandemics, irregular migration, terrorism, polarization, and declining social cohesion in many democracies. In a globalized world, ripples from geographically distant conflicts inevitably reach Australia, often with significant consequences.
This review argues that China and Russia, together with other authoritarian states in a loose alliance of self-interest, are working together more closely to challenge US domination.
“The close cooperation between China and Russia has been a marked change in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia, Iran and North Korea are deepening their ties. At the moment, the leisurely, authoritarian bloc is forcing its national interests in ways that undermine global security and stability.”
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This review also predicts the potential rise of nationalist governments in Europe and the United States, affecting Australia's alliances and foreign policy.
“For example, elections of more nationalist or populist governments in Europe and the United States could introduce considerable uncertainty into global issues and change some of the assumptions of Australia's current foreign and economic policy plans.”
The report highlighted climate change as the “priority” of the Intelligence Report Agency.
“One reason is that global warming collaborations are now intertwined in China's integrated state rivalries, and the central technologies of clean energy transitions, such as solar panels, batteries and wind turbines, have become a competitive vector in themselves, in order to worry about supply security and seek the advantages of sovereign industries.”
The report says climate change has presented key security challenges, including food insecurity, marine health, water shortages, supply chain disruptions and large-scale climate-induced migration.
Albanese said Australia's intelligence agency is important for the security of the country.
“We will continue to invest in our ability to enable the Australian intelligence reporting community to address new threats and challenges,” he said in a statement accompanying the release of the review on Friday.
This review found that Australia's intelligence agency was widely successful in protecting national interests, but intelligence agency should be more prepared and strengthened for future threats.
Some of the 67 recommendations called for economic security functions to be established within the Ministry of Finance to protect against financial threats.
The review stated that economic decisions within the government are areas where national security risks are “more difficult to manage.”
“At our discretion, we need to redesign the system,” it said.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said national security and economic security are more connected.
“National security and economic policy are becoming more and more intertwined,” Chalmers said. “They're always intertwined to some extent, but now they can hardly separate from each other.”
