CNN Analyst Highlights Republican Gains Among Jewish Voters in New York

On Wednesday, CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten discussed the significant shift in support among Jewish voters in New York, indicating that Republican polling numbers are at historically strong levels. He pointed out that many surveys reveal a drop of over 35 points in Democratic margins with this demographic since 2022.

During his appearance with co-anchor John Berman, Enten emphasized that New York has the highest percentage of Jewish voters in the electorate. Recent polling indicated a trend towards the GOP in both the governor’s race and the U.S. House contests, which he later shared on X.

Looking at the governor’s race, Enten noted a current Democratic margin of just 13 points among Jewish voters. This represents a dramatic decline from the 51-point advantage that Governor Kathy Hochul had in 2022, and Andrew Cuomo’s 55-point lead in 2018.

“What we’re seeing is a significant downward swing of 38 points towards the Republicans in terms of Jewish voter support,” Enten remarked.

He also mentioned a similar trend in the generic House ballot, where the Democratic lead among Jewish voters has shrunk from 49 points in 2022 to just 13 points this year.

“Their lead has pretty much tumbled into the Hudson River when it comes to Jewish voters,” he explained.

When Berman inquired about the role of the mayor, Enten referred to Democratic Socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani, whose views on Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he suggested, do not resonate well with a significant portion of Jewish New Yorkers. Enten presented Mamdani’s net favorability rating among Jewish voters at minus 23, which is about 31 points lower than his standing with the overall electorate in New York.

A September Siena University poll supported this trend, revealing that, among Jewish voters, Republican Bruce Blakeman led Hochul by 46% to 43% for the governor’s race, even as Hochul maintained a nine-point advantage statewide. Jewish voters also favored Blakeman over Hochul on issues related to “undocumented immigrants,” 48% to 43%, and had a largely unfavorable view of Mamdani, with a rating of 64% to 33%.

This shift in sentiment comes after Mamdani was elected as mayor in November, with exit polls indicating he garnered around a third of the city’s Jewish vote, while Cuomo, running as an independent, secured about 63%.

Enten also discussed New York’s 17th Congressional District, currently held by Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), which Kamala Harris narrowly won in 2024. He pointed out that prediction market Kalshi assigned a 39% chance of Lawler retaining this heavily Jewish district, a figure that could increase if Jewish voters align with the trends suggested by the polling.

“They might very well secure Mike Lawler’s congressional seat for him,” Enten concluded.