A new poll shared on Thursday indicates that the gap in the City Hall race between Democratic leader Zoran Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo has reduced since Mayor Eric Adams decided to step back from the competition.
The Quinnipiac University survey reveals that Mamdani holds 46% support among likely voters, while independent candidate Cuomo follows with 33%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa has 15%.
In a previous Quinnipiac poll from last month, Mamdani was at 45% support, Cuomo was at 23%, Sliwa also at 15%, and 12% were undecided. Other polls had previously shown Mamdani with a solid lead in the four-way contest.
Currently, Mamdani’s advantage has decreased from 22 points down to 13 points.
The findings suggest that nearly all of Adams’ supporters shifted their allegiance to Cuomo, the former three-term governor, whereas Sliwa’s support has remained relatively stable.
According to Quinnipiac, Mamdani is still in the lead, but there’s been a notable shift towards Cuomo now that Adams has exited the race.
“The numbers indicate a change, but the overall landscape hasn’t transformed dramatically. Andrew Cuomo has gained a significant portion of Adams’ supporters and has reduced Mamdani’s lead, yet Mamdani still maintains a front-runner status by a double-digit margin,” remarked Mary Snow, assistant director of Quinnipiac University Polling.
Cuomo’s campaign advocates that while Mamdani has seen some growth in support, the momentum is clearly swinging towards Cuomo. They suggest that, even if Sliwa were to withdraw like Adams did, Cuomo could still pose a challenge to Mamdani in a two-person race.
“Today’s Quinnipiac poll reflects what New Yorkers are observing across the five boroughs; this race is experiencing a decisive shift. Andrew Cuomo has surged by 10 points since September, while Zoran Mamdani’s numbers have remained flat, and Curtis Sliwa continues to decline,” stated Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi.
Democrats represent the bulk of Mamdani’s support (60%), with substantial backing from Asian American voters (67%) and younger voters between 18 to 34 years old (62%). Cuomo, however, has a stronger appeal among Black and Hispanic voters.
Jewish voters show the most significant support for Cuomo at 60%.
Among Republicans, 54% are in favor of Sliwa, compared to 37% who support Cuomo.
When it comes to perceptions of ethics, more voters believe Mamdani is the more ethical choice over Cuomo or Sliwa.
Cuomo’s struggles to garner additional support likely stem from his controversial reputation, including sexual harassment allegations, which he has denied. A majority of voters (52%) hold an unfavorable view of him.
Despite this, many voters believe Cuomo possesses “the right experience” to lead as mayor.
When voters were asked who would best represent New York City’s interests in Washington, D.C., especially with President Trump in office, Mamdani garnered 35% support, Cuomo 34%, Sliwa 22%, while 9% had no opinion.
“Even though it isn’t officially on the ballot, the issues related to President Trump are influencing the race. Both Mamdani and Cuomo argue that they could serve as protections for New York City’s interests under a Trump presidency, but voters don’t seem to see much difference between them,” Snow highlighted.
A clearer majority of voters (48%) believe Mamdani would do a better job of reducing housing costs, compared to 25% for Cuomo, 13% for Sliwa, and 14% undecided. However, more respondents felt that Cuomo would handle the economy better, with figures showing Mamdani at 41%, Cuomo at 35%, and Sliwa at 15%.
In response to questions regarding views on the Israel-Hamas conflict, almost half (45%) of voters said they would support Mamdani, while 26% favored Cuomo, and 13% supported Sliwa, with 20% undecided. Interestingly, a substantial number of voters sympathized more with Palestinians (43%) than with Israelis (22%), with one-third choosing not to express any opinion.
The poll concluded prior to Trump announcing the initial phase of his Israeli-Hamas peace plan.
Quinnipiac’s survey was conducted among 1,015 likely urban voters from October 3-7, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.
