New York Mayoral Race Update

The race for New York City’s mayor has become quite interesting, especially for Democratic candidate Zoran Mamdani. His lead has decreased slightly since early October, but he still holds a double-digit advantage, even in a theoretical two-candidate matchup.

According to a recent Fox News poll, released on Thursday, Mamdani is currently ahead by 16 points. He garners support from 47% of likely voters, with Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa at 15% and independent candidate Andrew Cuomo at 31%.

Just a couple of weeks ago, Mamdani was positioned more comfortably above the 50% mark, boasting a 52% approval rating and leading by 24 points. Cuomo’s support has risen by 3 points, while Sliwa’s remains nearly unchanged.

Interestingly, the current mayor and independent candidate, Eric Adams, continues to receive 2% support despite deciding to withdraw from the race. He will still appear on the ballot.

Mamdani attracts significant backing from very liberal voters (85%), younger individuals under 30 (73%), and women and men under 45 (69% and 65%, respectively), although he’s experiencing a slight dip among young women and Democrats, losing 4 points in both groups.

Cuomo finds his strongest support among Jewish voters (55%), seniors over 65 (43%), and women over 45 (42%). Comparatively, Mamdani enjoys more endorsement from men (51%) than women (44%), while Cuomo’s backing skews towards women (35%) over men (26%).

Sliwa’s Republican support has diminished to 55%, down 7 points. Initially, 60% of Trump supporters had backed Sliwa, but that number has now decreased to 47%. Meanwhile, 38% of voters are leaning toward Cuomo, and 7% are still with Mamdani.

Additionally, over half of nonwhite voters support Mamdani, including 52% of Black voters and 60% of Hispanic voters, while Cuomo secures about a quarter of nonwhite voter support. Both candidates witnessed a drop in support among Black voters, each losing four points.

In a hypothetical two-way race featuring just him and Cuomo, Mamdani’s lead shrinks to 10 points as Cuomo appears to gain traction, especially with older voters and those without college degrees.

Mamdani’s supporters show strong enthusiasm, with 78% eager to vote, compared to 59% for Sliwa and 52% for Cuomo. Moreover, 91% of Mamdani’s backers feel confident about their decision, surpassing Sliwa (83%) and Cuomo (87%). Interestingly, Cuomo’s supporters have become 9 points more assured in their voting choice since mid-October.

Among younger voters, particularly young women, there’s ample enthusiasm for heading to the polls, with over 40% of under-30 voters indicating it’s their first time voting.

Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster, highlighted the importance of turnout in this election, especially considering the appeal of controversial candidates. He noted that while Mamdani’s supporters are motivated, they tend to be younger and might lack experience in the voting process. If they vote, he could potentially achieve near 50%. Yet, if turnout falters, Cuomo could close the gap to single digits.

Even though Mamdani’s advantage has diminished on certain key issues, he is still viewed as the candidate best suited to handle important priorities. While 52% thought he could effectively manage the economy two weeks ago, that number has dipped to 47%, yet it still surpasses Cuomo’s 32%. His ratings on crime and taxes have also faltered slightly, but he remains ahead of both Cuomo and Sliwa.

The biggest takeaway for Mamdani is his perceived ability to drive change, with 50% believing he’s the best candidate for the job, compared to 26% for Cuomo and 20% for Sliwa. The candidates are neck-and-neck regarding who could competently run the government, with Mamdani at 42%, Cuomo at 40%, and Sliwa at 16%.

According to Chris Anderson, the pronounced generational divide in this election is significant. Younger voters view Mamdani as a change agent, while older individuals express concerns about his potential impact on city stability. Cuomo’s focus on security might resonate with some voters, yet there’s little evidence suggesting Mamdani’s support is wavering, which is essential for Cuomo’s chances.

Both candidates have experienced an uptick in negative perceptions since earlier this month. Mamdani’s net favorability has decreased from +23 to +12, while Cuomo’s has shifted from a net -1 to -8. Sliwa and Trump, although still not highly favored, have seen slight positive shifts in their ratings.

Interestingly, when it comes to the candidates’ positions on Israel, nearly half of voters (47%) indicated it’s very or extremely important to their decision-making, while a slight majority (52%) consider it somewhat or not at all important. Voters’ responses suggest they may be five points more inclined to regard this issue as very important compared to those who don’t consider it crucial. Approximately half of the supporters for each candidate deem the issue significant, although Mamdani maintains a lead in these groups by at least seven points.

The Fox News poll, conducted between October 24-28, involved 1,107 registered voters from New York City, with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points for registered voters and also for the subsample of 971 likely voters.